Internal Struggles and Strategic Shifts within the APC
Uncertainty is growing within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as it grapples with its preferred strategy for the 2027 elections. Party sources suggest that direct primaries may be adopted in states where consensus agreements prove difficult. This shift comes as deepening rivalries and stalled negotiations threaten party cohesion, prompting the need for a more transparent and inclusive process.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has set a deadline for political parties to submit their candidate lists, pushing the APC to finalise its primary elections before the deadline. Multiple APC chieftains confirmed that the National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, discussed the timetable with President Bola Tinubu over the weekend. With the President’s approval, the party is expected to unveil the timetable on Monday.
While consensus candidates have been finalised in Lagos, Oyo, and Ogun states, the party continues to face challenges in other regions. In states like Nasarawa, Kwara, Adamawa, Yobe, and Bauchi, reaching a solid agreement remains elusive. There are indications that the President may intervene to resolve these impasses, particularly in Nasarawa, Kwara, and Adamawa.
In Borno and Yobe, while consensus governorship candidates have not yet been announced, party sources believe there will be no major issues. A top APC chieftain explained that consultations are ongoing, with a preference given to incumbent governors to choose their successors. However, where disagreements arise, direct primaries may be necessary to ensure fairness and transparency.
The APC has not abandoned efforts to attract Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed into its fold, with plans for a 70/30 sharing formula. Despite this, the leadership remains prepared to switch to direct primaries if consensus fails.
Internal divisions persist within the APC, with key figures such as Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Tuggar, Health Minister Ali Pate, and Senator Shehu Buba linked to the 2027 race. While Tuggar and Pate are believed to have governorship ambitions, neither has made a formal declaration. Meanwhile, Senator Buba recently distributed operational vehicles across party structures, seen as an early mobilisation strategy.
In Gombe, the APC appears to be making progress toward a consensus arrangement. Governor Muhammadu Yahaya is working on selecting a successor, with Transport Minister Saidu Ahmed Alkali among those tipped to run. Other names in circulation include Umaru Kwairanga, Usman Kumo, Muhammad Magaji, and former minister Isa Pantami.
In Yobe, the debate over consensus is more delicate, with stakeholders divided over its implications. Supporters argue that consensus preserves unity and reduces internal fractures, while critics warn of potential defections if aspirants feel sidelined.
In Nasarawa, party chieftains are still consulting widely before deciding on the mode of primaries. Governor Abdullahi Sule is engaging aspirants and party leaders to build consensus, with a focus on ensuring fair representation. The former Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, supports direct primaries, arguing that they align with the Electoral Act and promote transparency.
Alleged attempts to impose a candidate in Adamawa have triggered strong resistance, with Governor Ahmadu Fintiri rejecting such moves and warning of the consequences. Similar challenges are being faced in Kwara, where multiple power blocs and competing ambitions make consensus difficult.
In Borno, the race remains largely undeclared, with Governor Babagana Zulum showing little interest in anointing a successor. Political heavyweights like Vice President Kashim Shettima and former governor Ali Modu Sheriff are expected to influence the process, but analysts suggest the likelihood of a consensus candidate is slim due to the number of influential actors involved.
Overall, the APC’s internal dynamics are complex, with a mix of consensus efforts and direct primaries shaping the path forward. As the party navigates these challenges, the focus remains on ensuring a fair and transparent process that maintains unity and credibility.
