Rising Food Prices in 2026: A Climate and Soil Crisis
Environmental experts have issued a warning that food prices are expected to rise significantly in 2026 due to the combined effects of climate change and soil degradation. This trend is likely to affect several key food items, including beef, chocolate, coffee, olive oil, grapes, and figs. According to Professor Pete Smith, chair of plant and soil science at the University of Aberdeen, the primary driver behind these price increases is climate change.
Extreme weather events such as droughts and floods are already contributing to higher food prices, particularly during spring and summer. These events can disrupt agricultural production, leading to reduced yields and increased costs for consumers. However, soil degradation exacerbates this problem by making the food system more vulnerable. When poor soil health meets the challenges of climate change, it creates what Smith calls “the perfect storm.”
Last year, Easter egg prices were affected by rising costs due to droughts and heavy rains in cocoa-producing countries like Ghana. Olive oil prices also saw a significant increase as Spain and Greece experienced heatwaves and droughts. Similar climate conditions in the Mediterranean this year could lead to further price hikes for olive oil, grapes, and figs.
Geopolitical Factors Also Play a Role
In addition to climate-related factors, geopolitical events can also impact food prices. The war in Ukraine, for example, disrupted the supply of cereal and sunflower oil, pushing up prices from 2022. Instability in Latin America may make coffee a more expensive commodity this year.
The impact of climate change on UK food prices extends beyond just cost. It can have serious implications for access to nutritious food and human health, especially for vulnerable communities. As Professor Smith pointed out, the combination of climate change and soil degradation poses a significant threat to food security.
The Impact of Poor Soil on Food Prices
Save Soil, a global campaign, has identified beef, chocolate, and coffee as the most likely to see price increases in 2026 due to extreme weather in their production regions. Praveena Sridhar, chief technology officer of Save Soil, emphasized that failing to protect soil health will result in worsening food prices in 2026.
According to the campaign group, UK agricultural soils are about 40% degraded, making them less resilient to droughts and floods. This degradation is primarily caused by intensive agriculture practices, such as the use of heavy machinery and frequent tilling, which have depleted 40 to 60% of organic carbon in arable soils. This loss of organic carbon is crucial for maintaining soil health and nutrient supply.
Soil erosion from wind and water further compounds the problem, stripping away topsoil from bare fields or overgrazed uplands. Sridhar warned that when soils are degraded, even short dry spells can turn into damaging droughts, leading to collapsed harvests and increased vulnerability to global shocks.
Addressing the Crisis
Sridhar called for soil health to be treated as “nationally significant infrastructure.” She noted that the UK is particularly vulnerable to food price surges due to its reliance on food imports from countries suffering from similar soil degradation issues, as well as the ongoing degradation of its own soils.
Save Soil estimates that soil degradation is costing the UK economy around £1.2 billion annually. Historically poor harvests drive up input costs for farmers, affecting both supermarkets and consumers. Sridhar highlighted the need for regenerative farming practices, such as crop rotation and the use of manure, to address this issue.
David Exwood, deputy president of the National Farmers’ Union, emphasized the importance of healthy soils for farmers producing our food. He stated that soil health is their number one asset, underpinning productive farming systems and delivering environmental benefits.
John Walgate, chief executive of the British Growers Association, pointed out that poor yields in 2025 were largely due to a lack of rainfall, with farmers who had irrigation systems faring better. The UK experienced its driest spring in over 100 years in 2025.
Walgate said that if there are further increases in input costs such as labor and energy in 2026, growers will likely pass these on to consumers. He urged for relaxation of planning regulations to enable investment in winter rainfall storage, emphasizing the need for better rain management.
Government Support for Sustainable Farming
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs stated that they are safeguarding food security and improving the country’s resilience to drought by supporting farmers with the largest nature-friendly budget in history. They are promoting sustainable farming practices, such as improving soil health.
A spokesperson added that more than half of farmers are participating in government-funded schemes to adopt nature-friendly methods that benefit both their bottom lines and the environment. This support is crucial for ensuring long-term food security and sustainability.
