LAS VEGAS — Experts are forecasting that nearly 400,000 people will relocate to the Las Vegas Valley over the next decade. This surge in population has sparked discussions among officials, developers, real estate professionals, and researchers about how to meet the growing demand for housing while addressing the current lack of affordable options in the area.
Recent data from Clark County highlights a significant shortage of affordable rental units. The region is estimated to need between 80,000 and 96,000 affordable rental homes. Between 2019 and 2023, the number of available units for rent or sale dropped from 45,299 to 33,670, even as the population continues to rise.
Currently, only about 36,000 acres of privately owned, developable land remain in the valley. While the area is surrounded by thousands of acres of federal land, some of which could potentially be used for development, there are challenges to consider.
Land availability poses several obstacles
Andrew Smith, president of Home Builders Research, explained that although large tracts of land exist, they come with their own set of issues. “We see these large swaths of land and, aside from the BLM ownership situation, there might be grading issues or other factors that the average person doesn’t think about. These areas are possibilities, but it really takes a deep dive into each one to understand the challenges and benefits,” he said.
Smith also pointed out that while remote areas may offer more land and lower costs, the expense of connecting to essential utilities like water and electricity can offset those savings.
Valley underbuilding housing units
Smith noted that the valley is currently building far fewer housing units than needed. “The supply of housing units is way below where it needs to be. Affordability is part of the issue, but land constraints are a major factor,” he said. He added that the valley is constructing much less housing than it has over the past 30 years.
“Many people want to live here. Businesses want to be here. Developers are interested in creating new master-planned communities,” Smith said.
Population growth strains land supply
Shawn McCoy, executive director of the Lied Center for Real Estate at UNLV, emphasized the scale of the upcoming population increase. “Forecasting predicts about 380,000 people moving to Southern Nevada over the next 10 years. To put that into perspective, this increase is larger than the current population of both Henderson and North Las Vegas,” he said.
McCoy highlighted that the availability of vacant, developable land is a critical issue affecting the region’s economy. “We’re running out of land, and this is the pinch point for our economic growth,” he said.
He also mentioned that the region needs more housing and larger employment parcels to support commercial real estate development and attract businesses and jobs. “The local land market is seeing big parcels become less available, making it harder to attract large commercial assets that could impact the job sector in the next three to five years,” McCoy said.
The 2026 Las Vegas Housing Outlook summit, hosted by Home Builders Research and Summerlin, featured speakers such as Tina Frias, CEO of the Southern Nevada Home Builders Association; Steve Hill, CEO of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority; and Zane Marshall, director of water resources for the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
