Nigeria’s Crude Export Figures and the Struggles of the Dangote Refinery
Nigeria’s crude oil exports have remained robust in the first two months of 2026, despite ongoing challenges faced by the country’s largest refinery. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the nation shipped out a total of 55.39 million barrels of crude oil during this period. Specifically, 31.31 million barrels were exported in January, and 24.08 million barrels followed in February.
During these months, the country’s crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January, with exports reaching 1.01 mbpd. In February, production dropped slightly to 1.31 mbpd, while exports averaged 0.86 mbpd. Over the two-month period, total crude production amounted to 81.94 million barrels, meaning that approximately 26.55 million barrels were left for local refineries.
Despite these figures, the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to face a critical shortage of domestic crude oil. The facility has repeatedly highlighted its struggles in securing sufficient feedstock from local sources, forcing it to import crude from international markets. This situation is particularly concerning given Nigeria’s status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer.
Industry insiders point out that a significant portion of the country’s crude output continues to be exported, while the Dangote refinery grapples with supply constraints under the naira-for-crude arrangement. Before the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) increased crude supply to the refinery from five to 10 cargoes, the facility experienced a shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026.
A breakdown of the data reveals that the refinery requires about 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly to operate at full capacity. However, during the five-and-a-half-month period, it received only 29.21 million barrels, compared to an estimated 108.74 million barrels required. This translates to a supply performance of around 26.9%, indicating that more than three-quarters of the refinery’s needs went unmet.
The Dangote refinery has consistently raised concerns about the lack of locally sourced crude oil. As global oil supplies face disruptions due to the Iran-US conflict, the facility has implemented multiple fuel price increases, raising petrol pump prices above N1,300 per litre before reducing them to N1,250 per litre.
In a statement, the refinery defended these price hikes, citing the refusal of local crude producers to supply feedstock. It noted that the facility receives only five cargoes per month from the NNPC instead of the required 13, with the cargoes priced at international market rates.
According to the company, the high cost of crude is compounded by the fact that upstream producers have failed to meet their obligations under the Petroleum Industry Act. This has forced the refinery to source crude through international traders, who charge additional premiums.
However, sources within the NNPC confirmed that the company is leveraging its global crude trading network to secure third-party crude for the Lekki-based refinery. They stated that the NNPC sells the crude at competitive international market rates, ruling out calls for the government to provide feedstock at locally set prices to shield Nigeria from global price fluctuations.
“Our global crude trading network allows us to source third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” one source said. “As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, we remain committed to supporting domestic refining.”
Another source within the NNPC admitted that there was a shortfall in crude supply due to past front-sales of some volumes. However, they emphasized that the company is actively seeking alternative sources to address the issue.
Recently, Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, revealed that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the NNPC in March, compared to an average of five cargoes per month since late 2024. While this represents an improvement, it still falls short of the over 19 million barrels needed monthly.
Calls for Increased Crude Supply to Local Refineries
Eche Idoko, the Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), has called for increased crude supply to local refineries. He emphasized that consistent crude supply would improve refinery operations and profitability, noting that modular refineries cannot make profits without adequate feedstock.
“If we get crude, of course, we will make gains; we have our cash flow. If we get regular products like we ought to do, yes, we would make gains. But without products, we are not making gains. If the oil producers give us feedstock, we will make gains. That’s how good the refining business is,” he said.
