A New Front in the Middle East War
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has taken a new turn, with a critical shipping route now under threat. While attention has been focused on the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, a second potential flashpoint is emerging further south — the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Known in Arabic as the Gate of Tears, this narrow waterway is now drawing concern from analysts who warn it could soon live up to its name, not just for the region but for the global economy.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants have escalated their involvement in the conflict, launching missiles at Israel and prompting fresh warnings from the United States about the risks to shipping. So far, attacks have been limited to military targets, but Iran has signaled it could impose a second chokehold on shipping if the US escalates to ground operations. Experts say such a move would mark a “terrifying” point of escalation, potentially triggering a major global oil shortfall and forcing demand to fall sharply to compensate.
In a worst-case scenario, this could mean a return to energy consumption levels seen during pandemic lockdowns.
Why the Bab al-Mandeb Strait Matters
The Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world and serves as a crucial link between Europe and Asia for oil tankers and cargo ships. At just 30 kilometres wide, it acts as a key artery for global trade, connecting vessels arriving from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and then the Suez Canal — one of the fastest routes between the two continents.
Military bases operated by the United States, France, and China are located across the water in Djibouti, highlighting the corridor’s strategic importance.
Before the Iran war, roughly 12 per cent of the world’s oil shipments passed through Bab al-Mandeb, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Now, with Iran formalizing its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz with a “toll booth” regime, the pressure on this southern route is growing. Some oil flows are already being redirected, increasing traffic through the Red Sea as exporters seek alternatives.
“We’re talking about three to four tankers more per day, which is still a notable difference,” said Rico Luman, a transport economist at ING bank, in an interview with AFP.
If the “Gate of Tears” is disrupted as well, ships would be forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. The diverted journeys could add weeks and significantly increase costs to global supply chains.
Could We See Another Choke Point on Energy Supplies?
From their mountain strongholds in Yemen, the Iran-aligned Houthis have the capacity to disrupt shipping using drones and missiles. They demonstrated this during the Israel-Gaza war, when the armed rebels repeatedly targeted military and commercial ships, discouraging passage through the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb.
Despite a decade of periodic bombardment from Western allies and the Saudi-led coalition, the militant group continues to control large stretches of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. Analysts say that makes them a powerful lever in Iran’s broader strategy.
Ali Mamouri, a research fellow at Deakin University, told the ABC that it was likely the “Gate of Tears” could become another choke point for global energy supplies.
“Of course, that seems so,” he said. “Iran has a very clear escalation strategy … and the Houthis are a very significant asset for them.”
Dr Mamouri explained that targeting maritime traffic allows Iran to increase pressure without crossing a threshold that would trigger a direct US response. “Iran wants to control and moderate the escalation of the movement,” he said. “They don’t want to use all their cards at once, and they have many more cards to reveal as well.”
On Wednesday, Iranian news agency Tasnim quoted an unnamed military official as saying that Iran would target shipping in the Red Sea if the US deployed ground forces or sought to “impose costs” through naval operations. “The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is among the most strategic straits in the world, and Iran has both the will and the capability to pose a fully credible threat against it,” the official said.
What Happens If It Closes?
Analysts say energy markets would be especially exposed if the Bab al-Mandeb Strait were to close. Oil prices could spike as supplies are delayed or rerouted. Shipping costs would climb, feeding into inflation worldwide. And already strained supply chains — from fuel to food — could face fresh disruption.
Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the consequences of a second choke point would be far-reaching. “The concern is if Houthi rebels can halt very large crude carrier movement through the Red Sea, we will now bottle up a further 5 million barrels a day of oil,” he said. “That’s going to mean we are in about a 16 million barrel a day deficit in terms of global oil supply versus demand.”
While that scenario has not yet eventuated, Professor Miller said prolonged escalation could deliver a “brutal reality.” The world would “need to be back at a COVID-19 lockdown level of energy consumption,” he said. “Which is something that those of us in the supply chain and commodity market space are quite terrified about.”
He added that targeting shipping would likely be a later step in any escalation. “We are not there yet,” Professor Miller said. “But if this goes on for another month or two, and you have the closure of the Red Sea as well, that’s the type of very scary situation we’re looking at.”
