The Unpredictable NRL Season and the Role of Salary Caps
After just a month of this unpredictable, even chaotic, NRL season, there are two certainties compared to last year: the Panthers won’t be at the bottom of the table at the halfway mark, and no team will “do a Canberra” and rise from outside the elite eight to win the minor premiership. The NRL’s great equalizer — the salary cap — is not fulfilling its purpose of maintaining balance across the league.
We knew it was failing when Penrith won four consecutive premierships while, during the same period, Wests Tigers took the wooden spoon three times. This imbalance highlights how the salary cap isn’t working as intended.
Panthers playmaker Jarome Luai moved to Wests Tigers, indicating that Penrith could not accommodate all their superstars under the salary cap, and the Tigers had room. However, money wasn’t Luai’s top priority; he wanted leadership. Despite his absence, his young, motivated team defeated the unbeaten Warriors 32-14 away.
The Dragons are currently winless and struggling at the bottom of the NRL ladder, which aligns with early predictions by coach Shane Flanagan that “we are not going to win the comp this year.” His pessimism may stem from the belief that the salary cap fails bottom clubs. The Dragons had to offer more money and a longer contract to lure Keaon Koloamatangi from South Sydney in 2027. The Rabbitohs were wary of long-term deals after signing Greg Inglis and Sam Burgess, and couldn’t justify paying a middle forward $1 million when he would be 33 by the time the contract ended. Parramatta also avoided such deals.
However, the Dragons, desperate for some punch in their forward pack, agreed to give Koloamatangi a fifth year in his contract. This decision is like deferring a dental appointment, causing greater problems down the road. Paying out $1 million plus to Koloamatangi in 2031 might mean less money to upgrade players like the Couchman brothers, Ryan and Toby.
The Dragons also don’t receive any concessions for developing juniors who sign elsewhere, such as the sons of club legends: Melbourne’s Tyran Wishart (father Rod), Bulldog Aaymon Fitzgibbon (father Craig) and Roosters brothers Toby and Tom Rodwell (father Brett).
This season, only two major players from last year’s top-eight clubs have joined teams in last year’s bottom nine: hooker Reed Mahoney (Canterbury to North Queensland) and half Jamal Fogarty (Canberra to Manly). They replaced two Origin stars recruited from bottom-nine clubs to top-eight ones – Reece Robson (North Queensland) and Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly) to the Roosters.
Money is only the third most important reason players switch clubs, according to a Rugby League Players Association survey. While 80% of the general population cites money as the main driver for switching jobs, this was the case for only 21% of NRL players and 11% of NRLW players moving clubs.
RLPA chief executive Clint Newton highlighted that factors like club culture, opportunity to be a starting player, the coach, and a club’s chances of success are more influential. He noted that word spreads quickly about a coach’s quality or the high-performance structure of a club.
The reality is that other factors determine the success or failure of clubs, especially with the taxman taking half the difference of any extra money offered to players. Top clubs have top coaches, such as Melbourne’s Craig Bellamy, Penrith’s Ivan Cleary, or the Sydney Roosters’ Trent Robinson, who attract players willing to play for less money.
Lachlan Galvin left Wests Tigers because, according to his manager, he wasn’t progressing under coach Benji Marshall.
The NRL’s best forward, Payne Haas, will leave premiers Brisbane — coached by Michael Maguire, a grand final winner at two clubs — to join up with seven-times premiership winner Wayne Bennett at South Sydney. Haas prefers the Skinny Coach, whom he believes will extend his playing longevity by managing the number of games he plays.
Opportunity often outweighs money. Middle-tier players, consigned to replacement roles on the bench behind established stars, will seize an opportunity to switch clubs for a starting role, even if the money is less. Daniel Atkinson left the Sharks to wear the No.7 jersey at the Dragons, while the durability of the Storm’s veteran No.7, Jahrome Hughes, forced Jonah Pezet and Wishart to sign with other clubs — admittedly for starting halfback money.
Sydney clubs have an advantage. A player can move around the eight Sydney clubs without having to buy another house and uproot his kids from school. Cherry-Evans recently revealed he had offers from other clubs but chose the Roosters because his children could stay at the same school and his family could remain on the northern beaches.
Home is where the heart is. Representative forward Mitch Barnett will leave the New Zealand Warriors at the end of the season for “family reasons,” while 28-year-old Melbourne winger Will Warbrick will travel in the opposite direction for the same reason, joining the Warriors. Premiership forward James Fisher-Harris left the Panthers for the Warriors to be closer to his Kiwi family.
Clubs and players pressing the trigger prematurely
Increasingly, clubs are signing players for the following season before a ball has been kicked in the current one, often leading to embarrassment when the incumbent shines. Raiders hookers Tom Starling and Owen Pattie helped the club to the minor premiership in 2025 when the club signed Newcastle dummy half Jayden Brailey. In last week’s loss to the Sharks, Starling played 61 minutes and Brailey 19.
Similarly, the Roosters had young halves coming through but signed veteran Cherry-Evans, so Sandon Smith left for the Knights — where he led his team to a win over Canterbury last week.
Players can also eject prematurely. Grant Anderson left the Storm, where he was the third-choice centre, to join Brisbane, where he is also ranked No.3. Now, with Melbourne losing two grand final centres — Jack Howarth to groin-hip problems and Nick Meaney is playing on the wing — plus Moses Leo having played fewer than 10 rugby league games, Anderson would be the No.1 centre at the Storm.
Player managers can subvert the salary cap
The Storm still quote the ancient case of the manager who acted for stars and journeymen at the club. In negotiations with Melbourne, he insisted on a big fee for an Australian forward, while dismissing the others with the comment: “Pay them what you like.”
Players are better behaved
A decade ago, a highly paid player jettisoned for misbehaving would be quickly signed by a club desperate for an X-factor. The budget-strapped Sharks won the 2016 premiership with discards such as Ben Barba, Andrew Fifita and James Maloney, deemed to be troubled, or high-maintenance individuals. The NRL’s comically named “no-fault” stand-down clause has reduced these sorts of moves, which helped level the talent pool.
