Impact of the Middle East Conflict on Airline Prices and Fuel Supplies
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already started to affect airline pricing and operations, with several airlines making changes to their fees and ticket costs. One of the main reasons for these adjustments is the disruption in fuel supply chains, particularly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical route for jet fuel.
Fuel Supply Challenges
Approximately 40% of Europe’s jet fuel comes from the Strait of Hormuz, and with it nearly completely closed, the situation is causing concern. The UK also relies on indirect supplies through countries like Belgium and the Netherlands. The last known shipment of jet fuel from the Middle East to Britain is expected to arrive soon, but after that, it remains uncertain how the fuel will be sourced.
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero confirmed that jet fuel shipments are still arriving in the UK. The country receives imports from India, the US, and the Netherlands, as well as smaller amounts from other countries. This helps to mitigate some of the immediate concerns, but long-term solutions remain unclear.
Potential Effects on Airlines
Travel expert Simon Calder has highlighted the potential impact of jet fuel rationing on major airlines such as British Airways, Ryanair, and easyJet. He explored the hypothetical scenario where airlines might need to reduce fuel consumption by one-fifth. According to Calder, British Airways is better prepared for such a situation, as it is accustomed to cutting flights at London Heathrow due to weather conditions.
British Airways sometimes cancels European trips, such as to Amsterdam or Nice, and offers passengers the chance to rebook a different route. Calder suggests this approach could be extended to long-haul destinations if necessary.
Ryanair, the budget airline, has also warned of potential disruptions. Its CEO, Michael O’Leary, mentioned that there could be supply issues in May and June if the war continues. However, Calder believes Ryanair has the flexibility to adjust its schedules. In 2017, the airline canceled around 20,000 flights due to pilot rostering issues, showing its ability to make cuts when needed.
EasyJet, another major budget airline, could also face challenges. It operates several routes with multiple daily departures, such as Manchester to Amsterdam, which flies six times each way. Calder suggests that similar routes could be cut back to save fuel without significantly affecting passengers. However, some less frequent routes, like Newcastle to Antalya, which runs only twice a week, may cause more problems if disrupted.
Recent Cancellations and Financial Strain
Some airlines have already been affected by the conflict. Regional carrier Skybus had to end its daily service between Newquay and London early due to rising fuel costs. Managing director Jonathan Hinkles cited a “huge rise in the cost of fuel” and a “significant drop” in bookings as reasons for the decision. Passengers affected by the cancellations will receive full refunds.
Emma Henderson MBE, a former airline captain, has warned that there could be a point where there is simply not enough fuel. She noted that some airports in Europe have already run out of jet fuel. Despite the uncertainties, she reassures travelers that they don’t need to panic about their summer holidays being canceled. However, she emphasizes the importance of staying informed about the potential impacts on travel.
Henderson predicts that long-haul flights are most likely to be affected first due to their high fuel consumption. If the situation continues, she warns that some flights may need to be reduced in capacity. While flight costs may be impacted in the long run, large airlines have hedged fuel prices and are protected for much of 2026. However, this protection is only effective if the fuel can actually reach the country.
She advises people to plan ahead and consider alternative travel options. “I’m still planning and booking flights (my work as a professional speaker takes me around the world and I do a lot of work in Europe),” she said. “But in the back of my mind I am also thinking about other ways I can get to places—by sea and land. I’m thinking of it as a possible adventure rather than a blockage and I think we could all have that adaptable approach.”
