Ongoing Threat from Al-Shabab in Somalia and East Africa
Addis Ababa, December 26, 2025 — According to a recent report, United Nations experts have highlighted that the extremist group Al-Shabab continues to be the most significant threat to peace and security in Somalia and the broader East African region. The group’s persistent activities have raised concerns, particularly in neighboring Kenya.
The UN panel emphasized that despite sustained military pressure from Somali forces and their international partners, Al-Shabab remains highly capable and resilient. This resilience underscores the ongoing challenge faced by regional and international actors in combating the group’s influence.
Regional Counter-Terrorism Efforts
Regional countries have long been involved in counter-terrorism initiatives, with Ethiopia playing a crucial role through military interventions and close security cooperation with Somalia and global allies. Ethiopian forces have participated in joint operations aimed at weakening Al-Shabab’s operational capacity and preventing its cross-border expansion.
These efforts are part of broader regional and international strategies to stabilize Somalia and enhance security across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopian forces have effectively degraded the group’s capabilities and prevented its cross-border expansion, contributing to the overall stability of the region.
Despite these efforts, the report notes that Al-Shabab retains the ability to carry out sophisticated and well-coordinated attacks, including in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. The group also sustains its influence through extortion, forced recruitment, and extensive propaganda campaigns.
Strengthening the African Union Mission
The UN Security Council recently voted to extend the mandate of the African Union’s support and stabilization mission in Somalia through the end of 2026. The mission includes nearly 12,000 personnel, including police officers. This extension reflects the importance of maintaining a robust presence to address the ongoing security challenges in the region.
Impact on Kenya
UN experts also highlighted the threat posed by Al-Shabab to Kenya, where the group has carried out frequent attacks this year, particularly in border regions such as Mandera and Lamu. These incidents have targeted security forces and civilians, involving kidnappings, infrastructure damage, and livestock theft.
Al-Shabab’s long-term objective is to overthrow Somalia’s government, expel foreign forces, and establish a larger Somali state governed by strict Islamic rule. This goal drives the group’s continued activities and poses a serious challenge to regional stability.
Emerging Threats: ISIL-Somalia
In addition to Al-Shabab, the experts examined the activities of the Islamic State group in Somalia (ISIL-Somalia). While smaller than Al-Shabab, ISIL-Somalia has recruited fighters from several countries, mainly across East Africa. By the end of 2024, the group reportedly had more than 1,000 fighters, many of whom are foreign nationals.
The panel warned that although ISIL-Somalia has fewer resources, its continued growth poses a significant threat to stability in Somalia and the wider region. This development highlights the need for vigilance and coordinated efforts to counter emerging threats.
Conclusion
The situation in Somalia and the broader East African region remains complex and challenging. While regional and international efforts have made progress in degrading Al-Shabab’s capabilities, the group’s resilience and adaptability continue to pose a serious threat. The extension of the African Union mission and ongoing counter-terrorism efforts are critical in addressing these challenges and ensuring long-term stability in the region.
