A Global Success with a Local Box Office Disappointment
The Australian-made sci-fi action movie War Machine has been a massive success on the streaming platform Netflix, achieving unprecedented global reach and popularity. It was the number one movie globally on Netflix for two weeks, remained in the top 10 in 93 countries, and topped the charts in 87 of them, including the United States, Australia, and Canada. In its first five weeks on the platform, it garnered over 118 million views.
For context, this is 20 million more views than Guillermo del Toro’s big-budget triple Oscar-winning Frankenstein managed in its first eight weeks last year. Despite these impressive numbers, the film faced a stark contrast in its box office performance, particularly in Australia.
A Box Office Disaster with Hidden Benefits
War Machine had a reported budget of around $113 million ($US80 million), with approximately $73 million spent in Australia. However, at local cinemas, it only earned $82,000 in five weeks. In its final week on release, it made just $180 in ticket sales.
Behind these bleak figures lies a more complex story. The film’s cinema release unlocked millions of dollars in government incentives, transforming what could have been a financial disaster into a significant windfall.
Although War Machine features an American star, Alan Ritchson from Reacher, and centers on an American military training program, it is very much an Australian production. Writer-director Patrick Hughes is Australian, as are his co-writer James Beaufort, several producers (including Greg McLean of Wolf Creek), and co-star Jai Courtney. Because it meets the criteria of having Australians in four key creative roles (writer, director, producer, lead actor), it qualifies for a 40 per cent rebate on Australian expenditure through the producer offset, administered by Screen Australia.
However, there is a catch. To access the 40 per cent rebate, the film needs a cinema release. If it were classified as a streaming or television movie, it would qualify for only a 30 per cent rebate. This difference is significant: the extra 10 per cent on the $73 million spent in Australia amounts to $7.3 million returning to Lionsgate, the Hollywood studio that financed the film.
A Strategic Decision with Financial Gains
The true value of War Machine‘s five-week cinema run in Australia was not the $82,000 in ticket sales but the $7.3 million in rebates. Typically, only about one-third of box office revenue flows back to the studio, with the rest going to distributors and exhibitors. By contrast, the full value of the rebate goes directly to the producers.
In 2021, the Coalition government aimed to simplify tax rebates for the screen production sector, proposing a flat 30 per cent regardless of whether content was made locally or by Hollywood, for the big screen or small. While this plan offered simplicity and a level playing field, concerns arose that Australian feature films might be unfairly penalized. At the last minute, after meeting with a delegation that included actors Bryan Brown, Simon Baker, Justine Clarke, and Marta Dusseldorp, the government reversed its decision. Australian feature films made for the cinema would still receive a 40 per cent rebate.
A Film Designed for Theatrical Release
War Machine was originally developed with a cinema release in mind. Patrick Hughes conceived the idea in 2017, and it was first announced in November 2021. In January 2022, Hughes, along with production partners James Beaufort and Greg McLean, launched their Melbourne-based production company, Huge Film, with ambitions to create big-budget action movies for the global stage.
War Machine was on the slate, alongside The Raid, a remake of Welsh director Gareth Evans’ 2011 Thailand-set heist movie that Hughes had been trying to get off the ground since at least 2014.
“Our intention was to make it theatrically,” said Lionsgate executive Erin Westerman in an interview with The Wrap. “And then when our sales team went out to start conversations with international buyers, the streaming market was just so frothy that … we all chose together to go to Netflix.”
A Streaming Deal with a Cinematic Afterthought
The deal with Netflix was finalized by September 2024, with filming taking place in Victoria’s High Country and Docklands Studios Melbourne, as well as a few weeks in New Zealand. The official release stated that War Machine would be distributed theatrically in Australia by Roadshow Films and released internationally by Netflix.
Australia is the only country where War Machine had any kind of cinema release. Even here, it appears to have been an afterthought. Roadshow’s release schedule issued on January 7 included titles up to the end of the year, but War Machine was not listed. Five weeks later, it appeared in cinemas.
The film was released on just 52 screens, a surprisingly low number for a movie with blockbuster ambitions. There was minimal advertising and promotion. On February 23, Netflix began promoting the film on its social media channels, with a streaming date set for March 6.
Clearly, no one had much incentive to make War Machine succeed at the box office. And unsurprisingly, it did not. Yet, that $82,000, five-week run might just be the best return the film’s producers could ever have hoped for.
