Active Cyclone Season in Australia
Australia’s 2025–26 cyclone season has already been highly active. Following the impact of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which affected three states in March, a new system has formed in the Solomon Sea. This system has the potential to approach and impact Far North Queensland later this week. The cyclone, named Maila, is the 11th named tropical cyclone to form in or move into the Australian region this season. It marks the first time that TCWC Port Moresby has named a cyclone since Cyclone Guba in 2007.
Current Status and Intensity
According to the latest technical bulletin from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Maila is currently a Category 1 tropical cyclone. It has 10-minute sustained winds of around 45 knots (~85 km/h) and gusts up to 65 knots (~120 km/h). At 18:00 UTC on 4 April, the cyclone’s centre was approximately 810 km east of Port Moresby, moving west-northwest. The environmental conditions are favorable for further strengthening, and models suggest that Maila could reach severe intensity (Category 3) late Sunday or early Monday.
Image: Enhanced infrared satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Maila over the Solomon Sea on Sunday morning. Source: .
Forecast and Movement
The BoM’s track map and technical bulletin indicate that the steering influences around Maila are balanced. A ridge to the south and northwesterly flow to the north mean that the cyclone is expected to drift slowly over the Solomon Sea for several days.
Image: Forecast track map from the Bureau of Meteorology, issued at 04:40 am AEST on Sunday, April 5, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Beyond midweek, the steering pattern may change. A strengthening mid-level ridge to the east could steer Maila towards the southwest into the Coral Sea. However, model guidance varies significantly after this point, leading to low confidence in the long-term track. Some scenarios suggest that Maila could approach and impact Far North Queensland late this week into the weekend.
Should the cyclone cross the Cape York Peninsula, it could weaken over land and then reintensify in the Gulf of Carpentaria before impacting the eastern Top End early next week as it moves west. Some models even suggest the possibility of the system moving westward into waters north of the Kimberley, though confidence in any scenario beyond five days remains low at this stage.
Image: GFS and ECMWF track guidance for Tropical Cyclone Maila showing potential paths towards Australia. Source: TropicalTidbits.com.
Impacts on Queensland and the Northern Territory
Currently, Maila is a remote cyclone intensifying over the Solomon Sea, with no direct impact expected until late in the week. Residents of Far North Queensland, Cape York, and the Gulf of Carpentaria should monitor updates as the steering pattern becomes clearer. If Maila moves southwest towards the Coral Sea and maintains its intensity, it could bring heavy rain, damaging winds, and flooding to northern communities over the weekend, similar to the effects seen with Narelle in March.
Meanwhile, Northern Territory communities should be aware that a weakened or redeveloped system could bring heavy rainfall to the Top End early next week. It is too early to speculate on any possible impact on Western Australia, but the potential for Maila to travel through three Australian cyclone regions—like Narelle did—cannot be ruled out.
