The Rise of the Long Bomb in Australian Football
One of the most captivating aspects of Australian football is the moments of brilliance that separate good players from great ones. These moments are often fleeting — a diving handball, a daring don’t argue, or a well-taken hanger — but some of the most spectacular and tension-filled plays are those that come from long range.
The long roost through the big sticks, whether from a set shot or taken on the run, has always been a highlight of the game. However, in recent years, shots from distance have become increasingly rare. In 2000, 11% of goals came from beyond 50 meters, but by 2020, this had dropped to just 6%. However, 2026 brings renewed hope for fans of long-range scoring, as the proportion of goals from outside the arc has reached its highest level in over a decade.
Teams Are Taking More Shots From Deep
Not only are teams taking more long-range shots, but they are also becoming more accurate from deep. According to Expected Score (or xScore), which adjusts for shot difficulty, teams are now scoring more goals from deep than we would typically expect. This increase in long-range scoring has been one of the biggest contributors to the rise in overall points this season. Teams are scoring about three points more per game than they did this time last year, with long-distance scoring up by over four points per game.
Who Is Kicking From Deep?
So far this year, it’s clear that teams are taking more chances when they can. The average length of scoring shots is at its longest in a decade, after a period when teams focused heavily on getting the ball to the hotspot. At the forefront of this trend is the Sydney Swans, who have relied on long-range scoring for much of the past decade.
Last week, the Swans faced off against the West Coast Eagles, an early-season surprise packet looking to make their own rise up the ladder. Many predicted the Eagles would struggle this year, but they started the season with two wins, largely due to their use of the long ball. For example, in their heart-stopping win over the Power, five of their 13 goals came from outside 50 meters, with another two from beyond 40 meters.
In their subsequent match against the Eagles, the Swans delivered a comprehensive victory, scoring five goals and two behinds from beyond 50 meters, along with another 6.6 points from beyond 40 meters. For the Eagles, it was a wake-up call; for the Swans, it was business as usual.
The Swans’ Dominance From Distance
This dominance from distance isn’t new for the Swans. Over the past 14 years, they’ve consistently been one of the most successful teams in the league, making five grand finals and winning one flag. While their hallmark has often been their defensive set-ups, their ability to stretch opposition defences has also played a key role in their success.
When the Swans can find goals from deep, it tends to unlock their attack more broadly. Having threats who can score from deep opens up their forward line and stretches the defense. The Swans have long been one of the heaviest users of the long shot, averaging five goals a game from beyond 40 meters since 2014.
The Role of Key Players
Many will point to Lance Franklin as the key to the Swans’ long-range success. His ability to score from seemingly impossible positions is unmatched. However, even after his retirement, the Swans have continued to score heavily from deep. This trend hasn’t been driven by long-limbed tall forwards but by goalscoring midfielders and smaller forwards.
Last year’s failed campaign coincided with a downturn in their ability to hit the scoreboard from long range. Injuries to key players like Errol Gulden and Tom Papley, two of their “big four” long goal-kickers, disrupted their forward line and cohesion. Without clear targets inside 50, there was extra pressure on their ability to drill goals from deep.
Adding New Talent
To address this issue, the Swans added Charlie Curnow, a two-time Coleman medallist and noted marksman, in the offseason. Curnow is considered one of the closest replacements for Franklin, with his ability to fire goals from long range. With Curnow now on board, the Swans can field three of the competition’s top five long-range scorers over the last half-decade.
So far this year, Curnow has taken just three shots without yet joining six teammates in registering a major from outside 50. Even without their new spearhead fully firing, Sydney is on pace to replicate the scoring patterns of their 2024 grand final year.
The Value of the Long Bomb
While the Swans have five clear weapons from outside 50, other players also have the licence to let rip when the situation suits. So far, 13 Swans have taken pings from deep, equal second only to the 14 Melbourne players who have launched from long range.
But why haven’t less prosperous teams followed the same pathway? It comes down to talent and strategy. Coaches must balance their philosophy with the strengths of their players. Certain players have a longer effective range and are trusted to take such shots. If a player can launch from deep, the data shows there’s clear value in taking the shot available instead of looking for a target inside 50.
The Impact of Long-Range Scoring
Last year, players averaged 2.32 points per shot outside 50 meters, including failed attempts. Teams averaged 1.63 points per inside-50 last year, highlighting the difference between the worst team and the best.
While teams are still more efficient at scoring within 50 meters, modern defences are so tight that it’s often better to chance the shot. Many of the most potent attacks in recent years have been augmented by a forward who can launch goals from long range. The Crows sides of the mid-2010s had Walker; the Lions sides of recent years had Joe Daniher.
Other Strategies for Stretching Defences
Geelong, for example, thrives in the pockets and flanks, using width to make the ground harder to defend and the scoreboard tick over more easily. If this year continues down this pathway, however, it might be the Swans pushing forward deep into September once again.
