Travellers are cautiously returning to the skies, hoping for a resolution to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East that could bring about significant discounts. However, many are also taking precautions by booking fully refundable back-up trips on top of their existing flights.
The Gulf carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, are betting on a potential recovery in June. These airlines previously served one of the most popular routes between Asia and Europe, and they now plan to increase their flight frequencies starting next month.
Despite these efforts, a lasting peace in the Middle East remains elusive. Some Australian travellers are still hesitant to return to the region, even as others are gradually resuming their journeys through the Middle East. The Gulf region is a crucial transfer point between Asia and Europe, but the number of daily flights between Australia and the Middle East has dropped significantly. According to Airservices Australia data, the average number of daily flights fell by 77% in March 2026 compared to the previous year.
Fares to Europe via Asia have seen a sharp increase, with the lowest economy fare from London to Melbourne rising by 76% year-on-year to around $US1200 ($1685) one-way. This surge in prices has made travel more expensive, especially for those planning long-haul trips.
For now, reduced capacity at Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad has helped keep discounting in check. According to Teneo, a management consulting firm, forward bookings for air travel are currently 24% higher than last year, driven largely by demand for travel between Europe and Asia.
Kylee Ellerton, managing director of Frank Ford Travel in Ballarat, Victoria, said that many travellers are not taking chances. If they are booked on a Gulf carrier and unsure about their trip, they often purchase another ticket on Qantas or Asian carriers as a backup.
“So they’re paying out the money twice. And the second amount they’re paying out is a lot more than what they paid in the first place,” said Ellerton.
In one example, a Melbourne-Amsterdam return ticket originally purchased in October on Qatar Airways via Doha for travel in late March cost $2288. By mid-March, back-up tickets on United (via Los Angeles and Washington) ran to $4973, while Finnair (via Tokyo and Helsinki) cost $4856.
Ballarat-based Kay Jackson booked a cruise from Athens departing in October, just before the fighting escalated. “Normally, we fly with Emirates – and would normally go through Dubai.” Instead, she has considered flying through Singapore, but has not booked because the prices “get dearer and dearer”. If she doesn’t get to Europe, Jackson risks losing her $7000 deposit on the cruise.
Emirates and Qatar Airways (a wet lease partner of Virgin) have signalled plans to restore their full operations to Australia in phases from May to June.
Ellerton has seen “a few people now that are starting to go through the Middle East”. A friend who travelled with Etihad to London said: “It was fine,” with the plane full and the service good. But the traveller was concerned that insurance wouldn’t cover any delays or disruptions while transiting through the Middle East.
Travel to Europe through the Persian Gulf has been under a cloud since February 28 when the US and Israel attacked Iran. Council of Australian Tour Operators chair Dennis Bunnik said: “Pricing has remained steady with no signs of massive discounting at this stage. Availability for the second half of the year with Gulf carriers is still tight. Most travellers are waiting for the travel advisory to be reduced before they recommit to Gulf carriers.”
Bunnik expects the Gulf carriers to recover later in the year. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has a level 4 “do not travel” warning on trips to the Middle East, even for transit. Many travellers remain unsure. “Even if the conflict eases quickly, I will be worried in the future because the conflict happened out of the blue, so quickly,” Jackson said, noting that the footage of strikes happening at Dubai Airport was “really alarming”.
Travel insurance typically does not cover regions under such a warning. Helloworld executive director Cinzia Burnes has seen the odd business class seat priced low enough for some passengers to accept the risk of lingering aviation safety near a combat zone and unanticipated disruption.
“Our agents are presenting the options, being very clear what they involve,” said Burnes. “Some people are travelling, assessing a low risk. Some are not prepared to take even small risk and they go with other carriers.”
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