The Academy Awards are just around the corner, and this year’s ceremony is shaping up to be one of the most unconventional in recent memory. For the first time in decades, a horror film is poised to make a significant impact, potentially dominating the prestigious awards.
A Horror Blockbuster Takes Centre Stage
With an impressive 16 nominations, the bloody vampire musical Sinners has shattered records, becoming the most nominated horror film in the Academy Awards’ history. This remarkable achievement surpasses the accolades received by genre classics such as The Exorcist, The Silence of the Lambs, and The Sixth Sense.
Its primary competition appears to be the star-studded drama One Battle After Another. This film is challenging Sinners in several key categories. Traditionally, a film with a progressive, politically charged message and performances from Hollywood heavyweights like Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn would be a surefire Oscar contender. However, as Sinners continues to build momentum, the outcome for the top honours remains uncertain.
Adding to the intrigue is Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. Originally anticipated to be a dominant force throughout awards season, the film appears to have lost considerable steam, raising questions about whether it will secure any wins at all.
Best Picture: A Fierce Showdown
The race for Best Picture is exceptionally tight this year. While Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another was initially the predicted frontrunner, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has emerged as a formidable challenger in recent weeks.
The musical’s odds of clinching the top honour were significantly boosted by its win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards). Major publications and industry trackers such as USA Today, Esquire, Variety, and Awards Daily have all tipped Sinners for Best Picture.
However, the awards tracker Gold Derby, alongside Kalshi – a regulated exchange and prediction market where users wager on various events, including award shows – still favour One Battle After Another as the clear frontrunner. The Hollywood Reporter, The New Yorker, and the Associated Press also consider the Leonardo DiCaprio-starrer to be the most likely winner.
Interestingly, the screenplay categories usually offer a strong indication of the Best Picture winner. This year, both films are expected to take home awards: One Battle After Another is tipped for Best Adapted Screenplay, while Sinners is predicted to win Best Original Screenplay.
- Nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
- Favourite: Sinners / One Battle After Another (Tie)
- Our Prediction: Sinners
Best Director: Anderson’s Anticipated Triumph
Similar to the Best Picture race, the Best Director category is largely a two-horse race between Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler. However, no major publication or betting market currently places Coogler as the winner, making Anderson the strong favourite.
Should Coogler emerge victorious, he would make history as the first Black director to win this award since the Oscars began nearly a century ago. This potential milestone has led some in the film community to speculate that the Academy might consider making a statement by awarding him the win.
Josh Safdie, the director of Marty Supreme, currently has the longest odds among the nominees in this category.
- Nominees: Chloe Zhao – Hamnet, Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme, Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another, Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value, Ryan Coogler – Sinners
- Favourite: Paul Thomas Anderson
- Our Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor: Jordan Surges Ahead
At the outset of awards season, Timothée Chalamet seemed to have Best Actor all but secured for his role in Marty Supreme. However, his momentum has been overtaken by Michael B. Jordan, the star of Sinners. Jordan is now the favoured choice among a majority of outlets and markets, including USA Today, The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Gold Derby, Awards Daily, and Kalshi.
Despite Chalamet’s extensive promotional efforts to secure an Oscar following two previous nominations, his chances appear to be diminishing daily. A significant early indicator of trouble was the BAFTAs, where Marty Supreme failed to win any of its 11 nominated categories, equalling a record for most losses in a single night. The situation worsened at the Actor Awards, where Marty Supreme lost all three of its nominations, including Best Actor, which went to Jordan.
Chalamet has also drawn attention for some controversial remarks made during the Marty Supreme press tour, including a statement that “no one cares” about ballet and opera anymore.
- Nominees: Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan – Sinners, Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
- Favourite: Michael B. Jordan
- Our Prediction: Michael B. Jordan
Best Actress: Buckley’s Strong Position
In one of the few categories not dominated by Sinners or One Battle After Another, Jessie Buckley is overwhelmingly predicted to win Best Actress for her role in Hamnet. She is the clear favourite across nearly all publications and markets, with Rose Byrne a distant second for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
The only potential hurdle for Buckley is the impact of her performance in The Bride. This peculiar film, co-starring Christian Bale and directed by Maggie Gyllenhaal, has reportedly not resonated with critics and has performed poorly at the box office.
Speculation exists that Buckley might face a similar situation to Eddie Murphy. Murphy was widely expected to win Best Actor for Dreamgirls at the 79th Academy Awards, but ultimately lost after his comedy Norbit, released shortly before the Oscars, received overwhelmingly negative reviews. While it is unlikely Buckley will experience the same outcome, the negative press surrounding The Bride could theoretically sway voters towards Byrne at the last minute.
- Nominees: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet, Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue, Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value, Emma Stone – Bugonia
- Favourite: Jessie Buckley
- Our Prediction: Jessie Buckley
Best Supporting Actor: Penn the Frontrunner
This category is another where One Battle After Another is expected to shine, with Sean Penn widely tipped to take home the trophy. A win would mark Penn’s third Academy Award, adding to his previous Best Actor wins in 2004 for Mystic River and 2009 for Milk.
While Kalshi, USA Today, The Hollywood Reporter, and Gold Derby all predict a win for Penn, Variety has deviated from the consensus, suggesting that Sinners star Delroy Lindo might secure a surprise victory.
- Nominees: Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo – Sinners, Sean Penn – One Battle After Another, Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value
- Favourite: Sean Penn
- Our Prediction: Sean Penn
Best Supporting Actress: Madigan’s Unexpected Rise
The Best Supporting Actress category presents one of the year’s notable surprises, with Amy Madigan widely expected to win for her compelling performance as Aunt Gladys in Weapons. Madigan has not been a significant awards contender since the 1980s, most notably receiving a Best Supporting Actress nomination in 1985 for Twice in a Lifetime.
Furthermore, Weapons is not typical Oscar material, being a horror film – a genre that the Academy has historically overlooked. However, with the success of the blood-soaked Sinners throughout awards season, it appears the perception of horror films at the Oscars might be shifting.
Madigan’s main competition is Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another, who has already secured a Best Supporting Actress win at the Golden Globes. Nevertheless, Madigan’s earlier victories at the Actor Awards, Critic’s Choice Awards, as well as the AACTA and ASTRAs, are expected to give her the edge over Taylor.
- Nominees: Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value, Amy Madigan – Weapons, Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners, Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
- Favourite: Amy Madigan
- Our Prediction: Amy Madigan
