Championship Race: Who Needs What for Promotion and Play-Offs?

The Championship is set for an exciting final day, with promotion and play-off spots up for grabs. Coventry City, the newly crowned champions, will be returning to the Premier League after a 25-year absence. But who will join them in the top flight?

Ipswich Town are in control of the second automatic spot, aiming for an immediate return. However, Millwall and Middlesbrough still have hope of securing promotion.

Meanwhile, Wrexham, Hull, and Derby will battle for the final play-off spot, with FA Cup semi-finalists Southampton already confirmed in the play-offs.

Championship Final-Day Fixtures

Here are all the matches scheduled for 12:30pm:

  • Blackburn v Leicester
  • Bristol City v Stoke
  • Derby v Sheff Utd
  • Hull v Norwich
  • Ipswich v QPR
  • Millwall v Oxford Utd
  • Portsmouth v Birmingham
  • Preston North End v Southampton
  • Sheff Wed v West Brom
  • Swansea v Charlton
  • Watford v Coventry
  • Wrexham v Middlesbrough

Promotion Race

The promotion standings are as follows:

  1. Coventry City (C,P) – Pts: 92, GD: +48
  2. Ipswich Town – Pts: 81, GD: +30
  3. Millwall – Pts: 80, GD: +13
  4. Middlesbrough – Pts: 79, GD: +25

For Ipswich and Kieran McKenna’s side, the path to promotion is straightforward: beat QPR at Portman Road and they will secure an immediate return to the Premier League, regardless of other results.

However, a draw would complicate things. It would give Millwall the chance to earn promotion with a win over Oxford United at home.

If both Ipswich and Millwall fail to win, Middlesbrough could still make it to the Premier League, but only if they defeat Wrexham by six goals away from home.

Millwall cannot earn promotion with a draw due to goal difference, and Middlesbrough also needs a win. Even then, Middlesbrough would require Ipswich to lose and Millwall to slip up.

Play-Off Race

The play-off standings are as follows:

  1. Southampton (PO) – Pts: 77, GD: +24
  2. Wrexham – Pts: 70, GD: +4, GF: 67
  3. Hull City – Pts: 70, GD: +3, GF: 68
  4. Derby – Pts: 69, GD: +9, GF: 66

The play-off race is extremely tight, with goal difference playing a crucial role. A win for Wrexham over Middlesbrough may not be enough, as Hull could overtake them if they improve their margin of victory against Norwich. For example, if Wrexham win 2-1 but Hull win 3-1, the teams would be level on goal difference, but Hull would clinch the play-off spot based on goals scored.

However, Wrexham could still secure a play-off spot with a one-goal victory if the game is high-scoring. A 4-3 win for Wrexham, combined with a 2-0 win for Hull, would flip the scenario, allowing Wrexham to take the play-off spot on goals scored, even though the goal difference remains the same.

A draw would only be good enough for Wrexham if both Hull and Derby fail to win. Similarly, it would only be sufficient for Hull if both Wrexham and Derby fail to take three points.

Derby could jump into the top-six if they outperform both Wrexham and Hull. They could do this by beating Sheffield United and ensuring both Wrexham and Hull fail to win, or by drawing and having both Wrexham and Hull lose.

Play-Off Seeding

Play-off seeding is still to be decided. Southampton could potentially earn the third seed in the play-offs, but would need Millwall to lose and Middlesbrough to draw. If Millwall picks up a point, the Saints would take the fourth seed and a home second leg in the semi-finals, provided they beat Preston away from home and Middlesbrough fails to win at Wrexham.

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