ASX Stars: Immutep, Blue Star Helium & Patagonia Shine

Oil Shockwaves Rock Markets: Inflation Fears Mount as Conflict Intensifies

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through global markets, with oil prices surging to a critical US$100 a barrel. This dramatic price hike is fuelling significant inflationary concerns worldwide, painting a grim picture for consumers and businesses alike.

The week, which began with relative stability, descended into turmoil on Thursday morning. A significant drop of over 2.5 per cent in the Dow Jones Industrial Average triggered a sharp 2 per cent decline in the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) just hours later.

Oil, a fundamental component of industry accounting for nearly 30 per cent of all input costs, is a primary driver of inflation. When energy prices spike, the ripple effect is felt across the entire economic spectrum. In response to the current energy price environment, the US Federal Reserve has adopted a decidedly hawkish stance, with economists now anticipating at least one 0.25 per cent interest rate hike this year.

The market jitters were amplified by news that Iran had reportedly struck Qatar’s massive oil and gas terminal. This incident, which allegedly wiped out 17 per cent of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity, could necessitate up to five years for a full rebuild.

This surge in oil prices sent tremors through other commodity markets. Copper experienced a significant downturn, dropping nearly 7 per cent this week to US$11,800 a tonne. Gold, meanwhile, has been hit by a double whammy of anticipated interest rate cuts and profit-taking, putting it on track for its largest weekly loss in six years. At one point, the precious metal plunged 10 per cent to a low of US$4,500 an ounce before recovering to US$4,690. This volatility led to gold stocks erasing almost all of their gains from 2026.

The impact of oil shortages is not limited to international affairs. Even within Australia, the effects are being felt. Blue Cap Mining, a remote gold miner, announced it had been forced to stand down two-thirds of its fly-in, fly-out (FIFO) staff due to fears of diesel shortages. Adding to a difficult week for the gold sector, Northern Star, Australia’s largest gold miner, saw its share price plummet by over 40 per cent, attributed to a combination of Middle East tensions and revised company guidance.

As the market turmoil continues and oil supply concerns deepen in a region renowned for its resource wealth, Australia’s primary refined petroleum supplier, Malaysia, has issued a warning that it may cease exports if the conflict persists.

The pervasive sense of gloom has cast a significant shadow over investment portfolios, making it difficult to ignore the widespread negative sentiment. Despite the prevailing market conditions, some companies have managed to buck the trend, delivering impressive gains.

Weekly Market Movers: Standout Performers

This past week, while challenging for many, saw a few companies defy the bearish sentiment, with a select few achieving gains of up to 50 per cent. These performers offer a glimmer of hope amidst the market turbulence.

IMMUTEP LTD (ASX: IMM)
- Gain: 53% (4.5c – 6.9c)
- Immutep Limited, an oncology biotechnology company, emerged as the week’s top performer. However, this significant rebound was a recovery from a substantial loss the previous week.
- The company’s share price surged by approximately 53 per cent from its previous week’s close of 4.5 cents. This came after a devastating 90 per cent drop the prior Friday, which erased around half a billion dollars in market capitalisation.
- The sharp decline was triggered by an independent commission’s recommendation to discontinue the TACTI-004 Phase III study for its lead candidate, eftilagimod alfa (efti), in non-small cell lung cancer.
- Despite the crash to 2.5 cents, Immutep was reported to have approximately $99 million in cash as of the first half of FY26. This situation saw the company’s market capitalisation fall below its cash backing.
- This setback marks another blow to Australia’s struggling biotech sector, which has faced considerable headwinds over the past six months.
- Immutep plans to cease patient enrolment and proceed with an orderly wind-down of the efti trial, a development far from the “clinical milestones” investors had hoped for.
- This clinical disappointment highlights the inherent risks and unforgiving nature of late-stage drug development, particularly in a market that has become increasingly risk-averse towards long-term biotech investments.
- The company has stated its commitment to advancing its remaining pipeline. A positive note for its balance sheet is that with the TACTI-004 trial off its books, Immutep anticipates its cash runway will extend well beyond its previous forecast of the second quarter of calendar 2027.
BLUE STAR HELIUM LTD (ASX: BNL)
- Gain: 50% (0.6c – 0.9c)
- Blue Star Helium secured the second spot with a 50 per cent increase in its share price. The company is focused on alternative fuels, specifically helium.
- While there was no new company news, the surge in share price is attributed to the growing potential of its projects as a valuable source of helium. Helium is an essential inert gas used in critical applications such as cooling magnets in MRI machines, semiconductor manufacturing, and fibre optics.
- The company’s Galactica joint venture, linked to its Pinyon Canyon processing plant in Colorado, is nearing commercial helium production. The market has responded positively, driving its share price up by approximately 80 per cent this month.
- Blue Star has indicated that it is on the cusp of achieving its first significant production. The Pinyon Canyon plant has been commissioned and is actively processing gas.
- A key development is the successful stripping of carbon dioxide from the helium-rich gas stream, a crucial step that facilitates cleaner processing and results in a saleable helium product.
- Preparations for sales are also progressing. Spot helium sales arrangements have been secured, and discussions for longer-term offtake agreements for both helium and carbon dioxide are ongoing.
- Initial helium production commenced in December of last year, with the recovery unit becoming operational in the same month. By January, the first tube trailer had been dispatched, marking another milestone towards steady-state production.
- Blue Star’s strategy moving forward involves scaling up operations throughout 2026, with plans for additional well tie-ins and infill drilling to increase throughput at Pinyon Canyon.
- The immediate focus is on stabilising production rates and securing commercial offtake agreements to ensure sustained revenue.
- In the context of volatile oil and gas markets, Blue Star’s expansion into helium production is particularly timely, offering consumers an alternative to the high prices driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
PATAGONIA LITHIUM LTD (ASX: PL3)
- Gain: 43% (14c – 20c)
- Patagonia Lithium rounds out the list of top performers, with its share price increasing by over 43 per cent, despite a lack of recent news announcements.
- This upward movement is largely attributed to market anticipation of forthcoming assay results and a potential resource upgrade at its lithium project in Argentina’s renowned Lithium Triangle.
- The company recently completed a drilling campaign in February at its Formentera project in Jujuy Province, Argentina. All indications suggest a promising enhancement of its lithium resource, especially with the recent resurgence in lithium prices.
- Patagonia’s sixth well, drilled to a depth of 488 metres, intersected a substantial 180-metre zone of porous, brine-hosting sands – a geological characteristic that has established Argentina as a major player in lithium brine production.
- The company reported strong flow rates from packer testing, a high specific gravity, and exceptional conductivity readings, all of which are indicative of high lithium content, generating significant investor interest.
- Nine brine samples are currently undergoing laboratory analysis for assays, alongside core samples being tested for porosity and yield.
- Crucially, the latest well results integrate well with previous drilling data, enabling the company to develop a more robust geological model ahead of the next resource update.
- Patagonia already holds a resource of 551,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. However, the February drilling results have heightened expectations for a potential upgrade to higher-confidence “indicated” resource categories, and possibly an expansion of the overall resource size.
- Lithium prices have shown resilience after a challenging sell-off last year, revitalising a sector that appeared to be in decline. Argentina’s brine projects, known for their lower operating costs and scalability, are once again gaining favour.
- Following a strategic funding deal initiated in January, Patagonia is now experiencing renewed momentum, driven by the prospect of its brine resources translating into a larger and more valuable resource base.