France is currently immersed in the crucial second round of its local elections, a vote widely seen as a significant barometer for the upcoming presidential race. With key cities like Paris and Marseille hanging in the balance, both the radical left and the far right are keenly anticipating potential gains.
While the majority of France’s approximately 35,000 communes cast their votes in the initial round last Sunday, it’s in municipalities with tighter contests, particularly in larger urban centres, where this second round will prove decisive. The strategic formation of electoral alliances is playing a pivotal role in shaping the outcomes.
Political analysts suggest that while local elections are inherently influenced by regional issues, they often provide valuable insights into the national mood and electoral trends. As Frédéric Dabi from the Ifop polling institute noted, these elections “create momentum, provide a boost and establish a narrative.”
Beyond gauging voter sentiment ahead of the 2027 presidential election – an election where the far-right National Rally (RN) sees a prime opportunity to seize power, especially with President Emmanuel Macron set to step down – these local contests can also illuminate the potential for tactical alliances at the national level.
A Tale of Two Cities: Paris and Marseille
The French capital, Paris, is witnessing one of the most closely watched contests. The city hall has been under Socialist Party (PS) leadership since 2001. In the first round, the centre-left candidate, Emmanuel Grégoire, secured a lead with 38% of the vote, followed by the conservative Rachida Dati at 25.5%.
Three other candidates had qualified for the second round. However, a significant shift has occurred with moderate right-winger Pierre-Yves Bournazel merging his list with Dati’s. Simultaneously, the far-right’s Sarah Knafo has withdrawn, a move that could consolidate the right-wing vote in the capital.
On the left, Grégoire has explicitly rejected any alliance with Sophia Chikirou of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical-left France Unbowed (LFI). This stance reflects a broader reluctance within the mainstream left to collaborate with LFI, citing concerns over extremism, antisemitism, and violence. This dynamic sets up a challenging three-way race for Grégoire. A victory would reinforce the mainstream left’s hesitancy to engage with LFI, while a loss could be interpreted by the right as evidence of the potential strength of a broader right-wing coalition.
The situation in Marseille, France’s second-largest city, presents a different electoral landscape. Here, the far-right National Rally (RN) candidate, Franck Allisio, narrowly trailed the outgoing centre-left Mayor Benoît Payan by a single percentage point in the first round.
Similar to the situation in Paris, Payan has ruled out an alliance with LFI. However, LFI’s candidate, Sébastien Delogu, has withdrawn from the race, stating that the RN must be prevented from gaining power “at all costs.” A conservative candidate remains in the running, despite calls from the RN for her to step aside.
Far-Right Ambitions and Conservative Alliances
The National Rally (RN), currently the largest single party in the French parliament, harbours significant hopes for success in other areas as well. Cities such as Toulon and the Riviera city of Nice are also key battlegrounds. In Nice, Éric Ciotti, an ally of the RN running under the banner of his own breakaway conservative party and the RN, is the frontrunner.
Bruno Retailleau, the national leader of the main conservative party, Les Républicains (LR), has notably declined to endorse the outgoing centre-right mayor of Nice against Ciotti. This decision could pave the way for a formal conservative and far-right electoral alliance in the lead-up to next year’s national elections.
The Radical Left’s Influence and Counter-Strategies
In several cities, the radical left is perceived as a force that needs to be actively resisted. In Strasbourg, the Socialist Party (PS) has joined forces with President Macron’s centrist movement to counter a perceived LFI threat. Similarly, in Lille, the Socialists have united with the Greens in an effort to block the radical-left party.
However, the electoral map is not uniform. In other locations, local alliances between the mainstream and radical left could yield successful outcomes. Cities such as Avignon, Brest, Nantes, and Toulouse, France’s fourth-largest city, are potential beneficiaries of such collaborations. Furthermore, LFI might secure a victory in the northern city of Roubaix based on its own electoral strength.
A Presidential Contender’s Strong Position
Another significant race to monitor is in the port city of Le Havre. The incumbent mayor, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, is in a strong position to retain his post. His success could position him as a potential leading presidential contender, capable of challenging figures like the RN’s Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen.
Polling stations across France opened at 8 am local time and are scheduled to close at 8 pm in the major cities. The election results are anticipated to be released throughout the evening.
