Global Travel Thrown into Chaos as Conflict Disrupts Flights and Reshapes Holiday Plans
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through the global travel industry, forcing millions of holidaymakers to rethink their plans and leading to the cancellation of tens of thousands of flights in a matter of weeks. Aviation data firm Cirium reports that over six million passengers travelling to or from the Middle East have been impacted by flight cancellations since the conflict escalated.
This volatile situation has significantly narrowed the available flight paths for long-haul journeys between Europe and Asia, creating operational headaches for numerous airlines and, in some cases, driving up ticket prices. Airspace closures and escalating safety concerns have resulted in widespread service suspensions and rerouting. Out of a staggering 118,642 scheduled flights to or from Middle Eastern airports since the conflict began on February 28, a substantial 53 per cent, or 63,265 flights, have been axed. This total encompasses 32,169 cancelled departures and 31,096 cancelled arrivals, affecting all global flights to and from countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Iran.
The risk posed by missiles and drones has effectively blocked key air routes. Consequently, flights connecting Australia with the region, particularly those transiting through major hubs like Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, have been severely affected.
Soaring Costs and Shifting Destinations
Beyond the immediate travel disruptions, the conflict is also fuelling a rise in oil prices. Jet fuel costs are soaring, with the International Energy Agency describing it as the most significant oil supply disruption in history. While Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad have borne the brunt of these impacts, most major international airlines are now feeling the pinch. Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, three of the largest aviation hubs in the Gulf, collectively handled approximately 2 per cent of global air passenger traffic last year. Notably, transiting passengers account for a substantial portion of traffic at these hubs, with over 70 per cent at Doha and 45 per cent at Dubai.
While Middle Eastern airlines like Emirates, based in Dubai, have not indicated any plans to relocate their headquarters to Europe, major transit points such as Istanbul and Frankfurt offer extensive long-haul networks and strategic locations for East-West connections. The timing of this conflict is particularly unfortunate for the tourism sector, as it coincides with the crucial period for summer travel bookings.
Airline-Specific Impacts and Cancellations
The ripple effect of the conflict is evident across a wide spectrum of airlines, each implementing their own adjustments to flight schedules:
- AEGEAN AIRLINES: Greece’s largest airline has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv, Beirut, and Amman until April 22, and to Erbil and Baghdad until May 24. Services to Dubai have been suspended until April 19, and to Riyadh until April 18.
- AIR BALTIC: Latvia’s airBaltic has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv until April 5 and all flights to Dubai until October 24.
- AIR CANADA: The Canadian carrier has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv until May 2 and all flights to Dubai until March 28.
- AIR EUROPA: The Spanish airline has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv until April 10.
- AIR FRANCE-KLM: Air France has suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut until March 21, and to Dubai and Riyadh until March 20. KLM has suspended flights to Riyadh, Dammam, and Dubai until March 28, and flights to Tel Aviv for the remainder of its winter season.
- CATHAY PACIFIC: The Hong Kong-based airline has cancelled all passenger and cargo freighter flights to and from Dubai and Riyadh until April 30.
- DELTA: The US carrier has cancelled flights from New York to Tel Aviv until March 31 and from Tel Aviv to New York until April 1. The resumption of its Atlanta to Tel Aviv service has been delayed, with flights paused until August 4 (outbound) and August 5 (inbound).
- EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES: The Israeli flag carrier has suspended regular flights until March 21.
- EMIRATES: The UAE airline has implemented a reduced flight schedule following a partial reopening of regional airspace.
- ETIHAD AIRWAYS: The UAE carrier is operating a limited commercial flight schedule between Abu Dhabi and several key destinations.
- FINNAIR: The Finnish airline has cancelled its Dubai flights until March 29 and Doha flights until April 2, while continuing to avoid the airspace of Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Israel.
- FLYNAS: Saudi Arabian budget airline Flynas has extended its suspension of flights to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Doha, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Syria until March 31.
- IAG: IAG-owned British Airways has extended cancellations to Amman, Bahrain, Dubai, and Tel Aviv until May 31, and to Doha until April 30. The airline has also added flights to Bangkok and Singapore. Flights to Abu Dhabi remain suspended until later this year.
- INDIGO: The Indian airline has suspended operations to Doha, Kuwait, Bahrain, Dammam, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, and Sharjah until March 28.
- JAPAN AIRLINES: Japan Airlines has suspended Tokyo-Doha flights from February 28 to March 31 and Doha-Tokyo flights until April 1.
- LOT: The Polish airline has cancelled all flights to Dubai until March 28 and to Tel Aviv until April 18. LOT has also cancelled flights to Riyadh until March 24 and to Beirut from March 31 to April 30.
- LUFTHANSA: The German airline group, including Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Swiss, Brussels Airlines, and ITA Airways, has suspended flights to Tel Aviv through April 2, and to Beirut, Dubai, Amman, Erbil, and Abu Dhabi until March 28. Flights to Tehran are suspended through April 30, and to Dammam until March 17.
- MALAYSIA AIRLINES: The Malaysian carrier has suspended all flights to Doha until March 20.
- NORWEGIAN AIR: The Nordic airline plans to commence flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut from June 15, a shift from their original April 1 and April 4 dates.
- PEGASUS: Pegasus Airlines has cancelled flights to Iran, Iraq, Amman, Beirut, Kuwait, Bahrain, Doha, Dammam, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah until April 12. Flights to Riyadh were cancelled until March 23.
- QATAR AIRWAYS: The carrier has reported that its scheduled flight operations remain temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace, operating a revised, limited number of flights between March 18 and March 28.
- TURKISH AIRLINES: The Turkish transport ministry has stated that Turkish Airlines cancelled flights to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Dammam until March 19, while flights to Iran were cancelled until March 20.
- WIZZ AIR: The low-cost airline has suspended flights to Israel until March 29, and to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Amman, and Jeddah from mainland European destinations until mid-September.
Holidaymakers Seek New Horizons
The impact of the conflict has been a significant deterrent for travellers considering destinations near the affected regions. Bookings for holidays to Turkey, Cyprus, and Egypt have seen a noticeable decline among UK holidaymakers since the conflict began. Conversely, there has been a surge in interest for alternative destinations. Comparison website TravelSupermarket reports a significant increase in searches for Atlantic and European locations further removed from the conflict zone.
- Searches for the Dominican Republic saw the largest jump, increasing by 123 per cent between March 1 and 11 compared to the preceding eleven days.
- Antigua, Cape Verde, and Italy’s Tuscany region have also seen search volumes more than double.
- There’s a growing interest in destinations like Majorca, St Lucia, Montenegro, and the Amalfi Coast.
British Airways Holidays has also noted a boost in interest for Caribbean getaways, with searches for Barbados up by 46 per cent and Antigua by 63 per cent compared to the same period last year. Holidays in the Indian Ocean are also gaining traction, with the Maldives up 32 per cent and Mauritius up 42 per cent. Searches for the Canary Islands have also climbed, with Tenerife up 38 per cent and Gran Canaria up 50 per cent.
Skyscanner travel expert Laura Lindsay observed that travellers are highly attuned to news and travel advisories. “The travel industry is well-versed in adapting to unforeseen circumstances, and for those determined to travel, we know they are willing to adjust their plans to do so safely,” she stated. “With some routes still reduced due to airspace closures, travel disruption, and advisories across key Middle Eastern hubs, Skyscanner search data indicates that top destinations for UK travellers this Easter include Spain, Italy, France, and Portugal. While winter sun destinations like Dubai are typically popular for UK travellers at this time of year, especially with Easter holidays approaching, the ongoing events are leading travellers to seek alternative destinations.”
Thomas Cook reported a 42 per cent increase in bookings to Portugal over the two weeks leading up to March 13, followed by the Balearics at 40 per cent and the Canaries at 16 per cent. However, On The Beach has suspended its annual guidance due to the impact of the war on bookings, citing a “significant slowdown in demand following the onset of conflict in the region, particularly to destinations such as Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt.”
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary commented on the trend, noting “a big collapse in bookings to the Middle East and a big surge in bookings on short haul airlines within Europe.”
Economic Repercussions and Future Outlook
The Middle East’s tourism industry is estimated to be losing approximately $600 million (£448 million) per day in visitor spending, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council. The UK Foreign Office continues to advise that Greece is safe for travel, and most of Turkey is also considered safe, with the exception of the border region with Syria. While there are no advisories against trips to Cyprus, the Foreign Office cautions that “regional escalation poses significant security risks and has led to travel disruption.” Certain areas of Egypt are deemed unsafe, particularly along the Libyan border, but key tourist regions like Cairo, Luxor, Aswan, and Sharm El Sheikh remain unaffected by these advisories.
The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict has led travel firms to offer package holidays to countries near the war zone for as little as £100, as they attempt to stimulate bookings. Travel companies are concerned that this downturn in demand could persist indefinitely, with no clear end to the conflict in sight, making it difficult to forecast the impact on their profits.
The crisis is also expected to drive up holiday airfares. Energy market expert Amrita Sen noted that the jet fuel market has become “crazy,” with price surges likely to translate into immediate fare increases. The price of a gallon of jet fuel rose to $3.93 recently, up from $2.50 before the conflict began, a jump that Delta CEO Ed Bastian estimated to be around $400 million in additional costs so far. Despite these rising costs, executives from Delta, American Airlines, and United Airlines have indicated that strong ticket sales are helping to offset these increased expenses, with all three carriers reporting record bookings this year.
Some airlines are partially insulated from price spikes through fuel hedging, a strategy that locks in fuel prices in advance. However, not all airlines engage in this practice, and even those that do are often only covered for a portion of their fuel needs, meaning prolonged price surges could still lead to fare increases. Airlines may also increase charges for premium add-ons, such as seat upgrades, extra legroom, checked baggage, or priority boarding, to mitigate higher operational costs. This could mean that while the base fare might not immediately increase, the overall cost of a trip could still rise once these additional fees are factored in. Airlines that have announced price increases or new surcharges since the conflict began include Cathay Pacific, Air France-KLM, Air India, Hong Kong Airlines, and FlySafair.
