Iran’s Missile Strikes Target Strategic Indian Ocean Base
Iran has reportedly launched ballistic missiles targeting the strategically vital US-UK joint military base on Diego Garcia, an island in the Chagos Archipelago located in the Indian Ocean. The incident escalates regional tensions, with Tehran issuing warnings that British lives are “in danger” following Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s endorsement of potential further US strikes.
While official reports indicate that neither of the two intermediate-range ballistic missiles successfully struck their intended target, one was allegedly intercepted by a US warship, and the other reportedly failed during flight. This attack is understood to have occurred prior to Downing Street’s announcement on Friday, confirming that UK bases would be utilised for US “defensive operations” aimed at degrading missile sites and capabilities used to attack shipping. The Ministry of Defence on Saturday condemned the missile launches as “reckless.”
Diego Garcia, situated approximately 2,360 miles from Iran, hosts a significant airbase capable of supporting long-range US bombers and is home to around 2,500 American troops. The base’s strategic importance cannot be overstated, serving as a critical launchpad for US operations in the Middle East for many years.
The Strategic Importance of Diego Garcia
The presence of a joint UK-US base on Diego Garcia stems from post-World War II strategic considerations. As nations gained independence, US administrations grew concerned about diminishing access to overseas bases. Naval planners, particularly wary of potential Russian and Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean, identified Diego Garcia as an ideal location to project American power.
Recognising the UK’s existing wartime presence and administrative control over the Chagos Archipelago, a decision was made in 1961 to detach the islands from colonial Mauritius for future military utility. Following discreet negotiations, the US agreed to provide payments to the British government, potentially reaching up to $14 million, for the base’s use.
A report from Chatham House highlights Diego Garcia’s enduring role as an “anchor for American operations.” The island features an extensive airfield with runways capable of accommodating large military aircraft, including B-52 bombers, KC-135 tankers, reconnaissance, and transport planes. It also possesses substantial fuel storage facilities, advanced radar installations, and control towers essential for supporting regional military activities. The base proved instrumental as a launchpad during the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq War.
UK’s Sovereignty Deal and its Impact
In a move that has recently strained relations with Washington, the UK has agreed to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Under this arrangement, the UK will lease back the base, securing its future use. This agreement is seen by the UK government as essential following an advisory International Court of Justice ruling in 2019 that supported Mauritian claims to sovereignty over the islands.
The proposed deal involves the UK paying £34.7 billion over 99 years to guarantee continued access to the base. However, the legislation enabling this handover has faced considerable delays in Parliament, despite being in its final stages. The agreement has drawn significant criticism from various political factions in both Westminster and the White House, with parties such as Reform UK and elements within the Conservative party voicing strong opposition.
Donald Trump’s Shifting Stance on Diego Garcia
The substantial £35 billion deal, which includes the leaseback of the strategically vital UK-US military base on Diego Garcia, has been the subject of contentious exchanges in Westminster and has witnessed notable shifts in the American leader’s position. Initially, the US administration lauded the agreement as a “monumental achievement.” However, former President Donald Trump subsequently denounced it as an “act of great stupidity” and “total weakness,” amidst broader transatlantic friction concerning his ambitions to annex Greenland.
In a subsequent about-face, the US President then indicated his support for the accord, referring to it as the “best” deal Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer could broker. Yet, more recently, he has again withdrawn his support, branding the agreement a “big mistake.” This retraction is reportedly linked to Britain’s refusal to permit the use of its military bases for a US strike on Iran. The UK has maintained that it will not proceed with the deal without US backing.
Speaking from the White House on Friday, Mr. Trump expressed surprise at the UK’s “very late response,” noting, “I’m surprised because the relationship is so good, but this has never happened before.” He added, “They were really, pretty much our first ally, all over the world.” Regarding Diego Garcia, he stated, “They didn’t want us to use the island, the so called island, which for some reason they gave up rights to it. I was a little surprised in the UK, to be honest. They should have acted a lot faster.”
Iran’s Motivations for Targeting the Base
While the missile attack preceded the UK’s authorisation of base usage for US operations, it can be interpreted as a warning against such collaboration. The range of the missiles also serves as a demonstration of Iran’s growing missile capabilities. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran would “exercise its right to self-defence.”
In a post on X, he articulated, “Vast majority of the British People do not want any part in the Israel-US war of choice on Iran. Ignoring his own People, Mr Starmer is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran. Iran will exercise its right to self-defence.”
The Likelihood of Iranian Missiles Reaching the UK
As the UK becomes more entangled in the conflict, concerns have surfaced regarding the potential for fallout to reach the British mainland. However, experts suggest this scenario is highly unlikely. Iran’s current offensive capabilities are not assessed as having the range necessary to strike targets across the 3,000-mile distance to the UK.
Vuk Vuksanović, an associate at the foreign policy think tank LSE IDEAS, commented, “There is no evidence that Iran has the capacity to attack the US or UK mainland.” He added, “Iran, with its missile and drone capability, does have the capacity to strike US and UK military outposts in the wider Middle East, including the Gulf and the Levant.”
This assessment includes facilities like the RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus, which has previously been targeted by drones, as well as the Diego Garcia base.
However, analysts had previously estimated Iran’s longest-reaching weapon, the Khorramshahr 4 missile, to have a potential range of 1,200 to 1,900 miles. The successful launch of ballistic missiles towards the Chagos Islands has raised fears that Iran’s capabilities may be more advanced than previously understood.
Sean Bell, a military analyst for Sky News, stated, “All of a sudden the UK is not far away either so that’s the huge significance. At least Diego Garcia is well protected, London is not. The UK has no effective ballistic missile defence system in place and therefore, this is a very worrying development for the UK.”
