Iran’s Missile Capabilities: A New Threat to European Capitals?
Recent events have raised serious concerns about Iran’s growing ballistic missile capabilities, with Israel issuing a stark warning that European cities, including London, Paris, and Berlin, are now within striking distance. This assessment comes in the wake of an attempted missile strike on the UK-US military base at Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands.
While the two ballistic missiles fired towards the base ultimately failed to hit their target – one reportedly shot down by a US warship and the other malfunctioning mid-flight – the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have highlighted the significance of this incident. They contend it marks the first time Tehran has launched a long-range missile since the current conflict began, demonstrating a newfound capacity to reach major European capitals.
The IDF has stated that these missiles possess a range of approximately 4,000 kilometres (2,485 miles). This impressive reach, they argue, places dozens of countries across Europe, Asia, and Africa under direct threat. In a public statement on the social media platform X, the IDF declared: “We have been saying it: The Iranian terrorist regime poses a global threat. Now, with missiles that can reach London, Paris or Berlin.”
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has remained tight-lipped regarding the exact timing of the attack on Diego Garcia. However, it is understood that the incident occurred prior to the UK government granting the United States permission to utilise British bases for strikes against Iranian missile sites threatening the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement has drawn criticism, with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, stating on Friday that the UK was jeopardising the safety of British citizens by permitting these operations.
Diego Garcia is situated approximately 3,800 kilometres (2,360 miles) from Iran, while the distance between Iran and the United Kingdom is roughly 4,435 kilometres (2,750 miles).
Prior to the emergence of news regarding the Diego Garcia incident, many experts believed an Iranian attack on Britain was highly improbable, given assessments that Iran’s offensive capabilities lacked the necessary long-range reach.
However, these assumptions have been challenged. On Saturday, General Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, cautioned that Iran’s missiles could potentially strike targets much further afield than previously understood by the international community. Speaking on the BBC’s Today programme, he noted: “Previously we thought Iran’s missiles had a range of 2,000km and Diego [Garcia] is 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran.”
Adding to this perspective, Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer now affiliated with the Tel-Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, suggested to The Times that the missiles launched towards Diego Garcia might have served as a strategic warning to the UK. While he expressed doubt about Iran’s immediate intent to target Europe directly, he posited that such displays of capability enhance Iran’s deterrent posture. “It’s not that they think that tomorrow they will attack London or Paris, but I think that for them it’s another element that enables them to build the deterrence,” he explained.
The concerns raised by the IDF were further amplified by its Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, in a video released on Saturday night. He detailed the incident, stating: “Iran launched a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4,000km towards an American target on the island of Diego Garcia. The missiles were not intended to hit Israel. Their range reaches the capitals of Europe. Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.”
This warning coincided with claims from Seyed Majid Mousavi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s Aerospace Force, who suggested that Iran intended to launch further missile strikes towards Israel overnight. He posted on X: “Tonight, the skies over the south of the occupied territories will remain illuminated for hours.”
Meanwhile, in a separate development, US President Donald Trump, who had indicated the US was considering scaling back its military operations against Iran, responded to critics of the offensive. He asserted on social media that the US had effectively “blown Iran off of the map,” adding, “Their leadership is gone, their navy and air force are dead, they have absolutely no defence, and they want to make a deal.” This was followed by a threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours.
The evolving geopolitical landscape and Iran’s demonstrated missile advancements underscore a shifting regional and global security dynamic, necessitating careful observation and strategic recalibration by international powers.
