Tropical Cyclone Narelle Makes Landfall, Bringing Flooding to Already Saturated Top End
Tropical Cyclone Narelle has made its presence felt, crossing the eastern Top End of the Northern Territory as a severe Category 3 system early this morning. After traversing the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday, the cyclone made landfall and is now tracking westwards across the Top End. While Narelle is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength throughout Sunday, its passage is set to deliver significant rainfall to communities that have already endured a deluge of floods this wet season.
Cyclone’s Current Status and Forecasted Path
As of 7:30 am ACST on Sunday, Narelle had downgraded to a Category 2 system. Winds near its centre were recorded at approximately 95 km/h, with gusts reaching up to 130 km/h. The system was located roughly 340 kilometres east-northeast of Katherine. Forecasters anticipate Narelle will continue to weaken, dropping below tropical cyclone intensity during the morning. It is then expected to move over the northern NT, passing in the vicinity of Katherine on Sunday evening, before reaching the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Monday.
Impacts on the Eastern Top End
Narelle skirted just north of Groote Eylandt shortly after 2 am local time. While the primary weather station at the island’s airport, situated on the western side, experienced relatively protected conditions, it still recorded a maximum wind gust of 83 km/h and 32mm of rainfall since Saturday morning. In contrast, Gove Airport, located at Nhulunbuy in the far northeast corner of the Top End, bore the brunt of stronger winds, with gusts reaching 98 km/h, and an impressive 131mm of rainfall recorded since Saturday morning. Further west, Ngayawili on Elcho Island has seen 54mm of rain and a peak wind gust of 91 km/h.
Renewed Flooding Concerns for the Top End
Despite Narelle’s weakening trend, the system is still projected to unleash substantial rainfall across communities that have already been severely impacted by flooding this wet season. A severe weather warning is currently in effect for most of the Daly River Catchment, including Katherine, as well as numerous other river catchments across the northern NT. There is a possibility of localised 24-hour rainfall totals reaching as high as 300mm, particularly near Narelle’s weakening path as it transitions into a tropical low. This event follows closely on the heels of the region’s most significant flood event in decades, which occurred just a few weeks ago.
More broadly, widespread rainfall totals of 180-250mm are anticipated across large areas of the central and northern Top End. Early reports from Sunday morning have already indicated significant falls, with Bulman recording 93mm, Milingimbi Airport 87mm, Goyder River 77mm, and Mount Bundley North 61mm. A band of showers and storms that moved across Darwin delivered 16mm to the airport, and the city is expected to receive between 60-120mm before Monday afternoon.
Narelle’s Next Moves: A Potential Redevelopment
As an ex-tropical cyclone, Narelle is forecast to move across the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and into Western Australia’s northern Kimberley region on Monday. There is a moderate chance that Narelle could briefly reintensify into a tropical cyclone before making another landfall along the northeast Kimberley coast. By Tuesday, the system is expected to be over the open waters of the Indian Ocean. Current projections indicate a high likelihood of Narelle strengthening back into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday night.
Later in the week, Narelle’s track is likely to take it parallel to the Pilbara coast, with potential to move towards the northwest Gascoyne region. While direct impacts are not anticipated at this stage, residents along the Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts are advised to monitor the system closely for potential increases in showers and winds as it tracks west-southwest.
