American West Grapples with Unprecedented Heat and Record Snow Drought
The western United States is currently experiencing a troubling combination of record-breaking heat and a severe snow drought, with profound implications for water supplies, wildfire risk, and winter tourism. Scientists are reporting that both the extent and depth of snow cover are at their lowest levels in decades. Compounding this issue, a significant number of weather stations across the West have recorded their warmest December through early February periods on record.
Normally, this time of year would see approximately 1.2 million square kilometres (460,000 square miles) of snow cover across the American West – an area roughly equivalent to California, Utah, Idaho, and Montana combined. However, current estimates place this figure closer to the size of California alone, around 390,000 square kilometres (155,000 square miles). This drastic reduction is a cause for significant concern among experts and residents alike.
Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, has expressed his astonishment, stating he has “not seen a winter like this before.” Having lived in Colorado for nearly four decades, Serreze notes the “persistent” nature of the current weather patterns.
Jason Gerlich, regional drought early warning system coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), highlighted the severity of the situation in Oregon. He explained that the snowpack, which measures the amount of water held within the snow, is not only at a record low but is also a staggering 30 per cent below the previous record low.
While much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains is currently experiencing prolonged periods of intense cold and snow, the situation in the West is starkly different. In West Jordan, Utah, a suburb of Salt Lake City, residents like Trevor Stephens are finding themselves in shorts and T-shirts, lamenting the absence of snow and the lost opportunities for winter recreation. Stephens expressed a preference for icy roads and snow over the current warm conditions, highlighting the disruption to the typical winter experience.
Growing Concerns Over Water Supply and Wildfire Season
The lack of snow has created significant challenges for ski resorts, which have already been navigating a difficult season. However, the persistent dryness is now raising broader concerns about the long-term impacts on water resources.
States such as Oregon, Colorado, and Utah have reported their lowest statewide snowpack levels since the early 1980s, the earliest period for which comprehensive records are available. A dry January has further exacerbated the issue, with many states receiving only half, or even less, of their average precipitation during a month that typically sees substantial snow accumulation across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. While California has fared slightly better due to heavy rains in December, the overall outlook remains grim.
As of Monday, February 9th, Salt Lake City International Airport had gone 327 days without recording an inch of snow. This marks the longest snowless stretch since the winter of 1890-91, according to the National Weather Service.
The meagre snow accumulation in Colorado and Utah has placed the Upper Colorado River Basin at the epicentre of this snow drought. A healthy mountain snowpack is crucial, as it gradually melts throughout the spring, providing a consistent source of water for rivers and streams. This slow melt is vital for ensuring adequate water supplies later in the year for agriculture, urban consumption, and hydropower generation.
However, the current lack of snow, or a premature melt, means that rivers like the Colorado will receive significantly less replenishment later in the season. Daniel Swain, a researcher at the University of California’s Water Resources Institute, described this as a “pretty big problem for the Colorado basin.”
Furthermore, experts warn that the persistent snow drought could trigger an early wildfire season. Daniel McEvoy, a researcher with the Western Regional Climate Center, explained that when snow disappears earlier than usual, the ground is exposed to warmer spring and summer temperatures, leading to drier soils and vegetation, thus increasing the risk of fires.
The Role of Extreme Warmth
While the lack of precipitation is a factor, scientists are increasingly attributing the record-low snowpack primarily to the extreme warmth gripping the West. This warmth is directly linked to climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels. Data from NOAA reveals that since December 1st, over 8,500 daily high-temperature records have been broken or tied across the Western United States.
Scientists like Swain and others point out that precipitation that would normally fall as snow and remain in the mountains for extended periods is now falling as rain. Rain runs off much more quickly, failing to contribute to the vital snowpack reservoir. This phenomenon is a well-documented consequence of a changing climate that experts have been warning about for years.
Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and the Colorado State Climatologist, noted that while periods of no snow have occurred historically, the extreme warmth is a more direct indicator of climate change. He elaborated that during December, the temperatures were so high that snow was only falling at the highest elevations of the mountains. This was followed by a dry spell in January, accompanied by persistent warmth.
A Glimmer of Hope with Wetter, Cooler Weather Ahead?
Meteorologists are forecasting a shift in weather patterns, with wetter and cooler conditions expected across the West in the coming week. This could bring some much-needed snow and potentially mark the peak of the current snow drought. However, even with these anticipated changes, temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average in many areas.
Scientists remain cautious about the long-term impact, expressing pessimism that the incoming snow will be sufficient to significantly alleviate the deficits. Schumacher stated, “I don’t think there’s any way we’re going to go back up to, you know, average or anywhere close to that.” He added that while increased activity could help chip away at the deficits, it’s unlikely to restore the snowpack to normal levels.
