The 98th Academy Awards are set to captivate audiences this Sunday, March 15th, live from the iconic Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. This year’s ceremony promises a particularly exhilarating Best Picture competition, shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested in recent memory. While a total of ten films from the past year are vying for the night’s most prestigious award, the preceding award season has strongly indicated that the ultimate showdown will likely be between two powerhouse productions: Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling epic, “One Battle After Another,” and Ryan Coogler’s gripping historical horror drama, “Sinners.”
A New Category and a Tight Race
This year’s Academy Awards will feature a brand-new category, adding another layer of excitement to the proceedings. However, the spotlight remains firmly on the Best Picture race. Anderson’s political comedy-thriller, “One Battle After Another,” made an immediate splash upon its release, establishing itself as an early frontrunner for Best Picture. Yet, “Sinners” has mounted a formidable challenge. The film’s historic sixteen Academy Award nominations, coupled with a significant win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards), underscores its widespread critical acclaim and the strong favor it holds with awards voters.
The Actor Awards’ top prize is often seen as a bellwether for the Best Picture Oscar. Historically, a significant portion of its winners – 15 out of 30, to be precise – have gone on to claim the Academy’s highest honor, a testament to the shared voting bodies and overlapping preferences.
Predicting the Winner: Critical Consensus vs. Audience Bets
Despite the momentum behind “Sinners,” and the strong indicator from the Actor Awards, current critical predictions, as published leading up to the ceremony, appear somewhat skeptical about its ultimate Best Picture chances. This divergence between critical sentiment and industry buzz highlights the unpredictable nature of the Academy Awards.
Even with these final critical assessments, history has shown that unexpected upsets can and do occur at the Academy Awards. With so many variables at play, the question arises: where are audiences and bettors placing their confidence?
Betting Trends on Kalshi
As of Saturday, betting data from the platform Kalshi reveals a strong inclination towards Paul Thomas Anderson’s rollicking political thriller/comedy. “One Battle After Another” currently holds a commanding 77% probability of securing the Best Picture win. “Sinners” trails significantly behind with a 22% chance. Chloe Zhao’s historical drama, “Hamnet,” is a distant third, projected with a mere 3% likelihood of victory.
The Shifting Landscape of Oscar Bets
The betting trends for “One Battle After Another” on Kalshi have been consistently dominant in this Best Picture race since at least September. The film experienced its lowest point in mid-November, when betting odds indicated a 51.5% chance of winning. This period coincided with a notable surge in bets for “Hamnet,” which reached its highest point of favorability during the entire betting period, climbing to 29.7%. Conversely, “Sinners” has generally garnered less enthusiastic betting support, with its odds remaining in the single digits until an early January increase to 24.9% favorability.
The Kalshi “Oscar for Best Picture bets” page indicates a substantial volume of over $15 million in wagers placed with just one day remaining before Hollywood’s most celebrated night. This robust betting activity underscores the intense interest and speculation surrounding this year’s Best Picture contenders.
Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to DC News Now | DC, Virginia, Maryland News, Weather, Traffic, Sports Live.
