As the glitzy culmination of months of intense campaigning, the 98th Academy Awards are poised to bring the 2026 awards season to a spectacular close. This year’s ceremony promises to be a thrilling and unpredictable affair, with a diverse range of winners across various industry accolades leading up to the big night.
While many categories remain fiercely contested, Jessie Buckley’s raw and gut-wrenching performance in Hamnet is widely considered a near certainty for Best Actress. However, Sinners enters the evening as a historic contender, boasting the most nominations in Academy Awards history with a staggering sixteen nods.
The competition is incredibly robust, featuring the satirical thriller One Battle After Another, the visually stunning Train Dreams, and a strong cohort of international films, including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and The Secret Agent. Also in the running is the high-octane Marty Supreme, though recent negative press surrounding director Josh Safdie and lead actor Timothée Chalamet could impact its chances. The beautiful artistry of Frankenstein also presents a formidable challenge.
As nominees, celebrities, and esteemed guests prepare to don their finest attire, here are the predictions for who will be taking home the coveted golden statuettes.
Best Director
This category has shown remarkable consistency throughout the awards season, with a strong lineup of accomplished filmmakers. Nominees include Chloé Zhao for Hamnet, Ryan Coogler for Sinners, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, and Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. These directors have helmed some of the most talked-about films of the year, spanning a diverse array of genres from intimate dramas and gripping thrillers to sports biopics and period pieces.
However, the prevailing prediction, even before nominations were announced, is that this will finally be Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. With a remarkable fourteen nominations across screenplay, picture, and director categories over his nearly 30-year career and no wins to show for it, many believe the Academy is ready to recognise his enduring talent. His strong showing at the Bafta, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice Awards this year further solidifies his position.
Despite Anderson’s strong case, he faces significant competition from Ryan Coogler. Coogler, though earlier in his career, has already made a profound impact on cinema with Black Panther and Creed. The record-breaking nomination haul for Sinners also places Coogler in a powerful position.
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark Horse: Ryan Coogler
Best Actress in a Leading Role
There’s little doubt that Jessie Buckley is the overwhelming favourite in this category, a sentiment that has held firm for months. Buckley has swept nearly every precursor award on the road to the Oscars, rightfully earning her moment in the spotlight for her astonishingly vulnerable portrayal of Agnes, William Shakespeare’s grieving wife, in Hamnet. Her performance was deeply moving and showcased a level of emotional depth that resonated with critics and audiences alike. Buckley’s previous Oscar nomination in 2022 for The Lost Daughter demonstrated her immense talent, holding her own against seasoned performers like Olivia Colman.
The other nominees are also highly deserving. Rose Byrne delivers a deliciously chaotic performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and she would be a worthy winner if Buckley were not in the running. Kate Hudson receives a sentimental but sweet nomination for Song Sung Blue, marking her return to Oscar contention years after her nomination for Almost Famous. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value and Emma Stone for Bugonia also offer effortlessly brilliant performances that could easily triumph in another year. However, this year, it appears to be Buckley’s to lose.
Prediction: Jessie Buckley
Dark Horse: Rose Byrne
Best Actor in a Leading Role
This category represents one of the most unpredictable races of the evening, with fluctuating frontrunners throughout the awards season. Timothée Chalamet initially emerged as a strong favourite for his audacious performance in Marty Supreme, even securing a Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical. Meanwhile, Wagner Moura earned the Best Actor award in the drama category at the Golden Globes for his role in The Secret Agent and also took home the Best Actor prize at Cannes, where the film premiered.
While Leonardo DiCaprio, an established acting icon with his eighth Academy Award nomination, was beaten by Chalamet at the Globes, it would be foolish to completely dismiss his chances.
Ethan Hawke delivers an outstanding and nuanced performance as the witty yet petty lyricist Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon. His portrayal of Hart witnessing the twilight of his successful musical partnership with Richard Rodgers on the opening night of Oklahoma! on Broadway is a gorgeously theatrical and captivating turn. If Academy voters are feeling sentimental, Hawke could be a surprise winner, marking his first Oscar after five nominations. His visible enjoyment of the awards circuit has been a delight to witness.
However, the current odds favour Michael B. Jordan for his technically accomplished and genuinely impressive performance as twins Smoke and Stack in the boundary-pushing vampire horror Sinners. As a first-time nominee at 39, Jordan is not too young to be overlooked in a category not always dominated by younger actors. His recent win for the Actor Award further bolsters his prospects.
Prediction: Michael B. Jordan
Dark Horse: Ethan Hawke
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
This is another category that remains quite open. Amy Madigan has had a successful awards season, following up a surprise win at the Critics’ Choice Awards for Weapons with an Actor Award. A win for Madigan would also hold a neat symmetry, as 2026 marks 40 years since her first Oscar nomination for Twice in a Lifetime.
Wunmi Mosaku was celebrated as a hometown hero at the Baftas for her role in Sinners, while Teyana Taylor secured the Golden Globe for her powerful performance in One Battle After Another. Although Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning are both wonderful in the nuanced and often humorous family drama Sentimental Value – their nominations attest to this – they are perhaps the least likely to take home the Oscar in this category.
Taylor’s turn in One Battle After Another is a force to be reckoned with. She embodies Perfidia Beverly Hills, a fierce revolutionary leader, in one of the most iconic and provocative female roles written in recent memory. Taylor truly rose to the occasion, delivering a captivating performance opposite screen legends Sean Penn and Leonardo DiCaprio.
Prediction: Teyana Taylor
Dark Horse: Amy Madigan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
My gut feeling for this category leans towards Sean Penn. Whether he chooses to attend the Oscars ceremony is another matter entirely. Penn has a strong history of Academy recognition, having won for his last two nominations. He has already secured the Bafta and Actor Award for his portrayal of the repulsive and unhinged villain Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another. His popularity makes it unlikely that his co-star Benicio del Toro will emerge as the winner, though it has been satisfying to see two such distinct performances from the same film receive accolades. Jacob Elordi’s transformative role in Frankenstein earned him the Critics’ Choice Award in January, but it feels more like an outside bet.
Penn’s primary competition comes from two seasoned acting veterans in his category, both first-time Oscar nominees with storied careers – a type of recognition Academy voters often favour. Delroy Lindo, for his role in Sinners, is widely considered to have been overlooked for his performance in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods in 2021, and this could be his moment, especially given the Academy’s embrace of his current film. Stellan Skarsgård, likewise, garnered significant public support for his role in Sentimental Value following its Cannes premiere. Both Lindo and Skarsgård have actively promoted their respective films. Considering Skarsgård’s recent health challenges, this could also be a poignant and timely win.
Prediction: Sean Penn
Dark Horse: Stellan Skarsgård
Best Picture
We arrive at the night’s most prestigious award, crowning the definitive best movie of the year from a crowded field of ten nominees. This is the first time these specific ten films have competed directly against each other, as previous awards often feature shorter nominee lists or split categories.
The Critics’ Choice Awards in January was the last – and previously only – occasion where all ten films were in direct competition, with One Battle After Another emerging victorious. However, films like Jay Kelly and Wicked: For Good were among those contenders, and we now have the exceptional The Secret Agent and the crowd-pleasing blockbuster F1 also in the mix.
Given that One Battle After Another also took home the Bafta for Best Film, it is in a strong position to win at the Oscars. However, Sinners could still convert its groundbreaking nomination recognition into a win. Sinners is the top dog in terms of nominations, while One Battle After Another led the pack at the Baftas.
While Frankenstein and Bugonia are admirable films, they haven’t quite captured the cultural zeitgeist in the same way as the frontrunners. Sentimental Value and Train Dreams are quieter, more contemplative films that deserved wider recognition. Hamnet had its expected triumph at the Baftas as a British film, but the awards buzz has largely coalesced around Jessie Buckley’s individual performance. Marty Supreme seems to have lost momentum since failing to secure as many nominations as One Battle After Another and Sinners.
Ultimately, this category will likely be a battle between the titans. Any other film clinching this prize would be considered a significant upset.
Prediction: Sinners (by a narrow margin)
Dark Horse (if you can call it that): One Battle After Another
