Farrer By-Election: Liberals Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place as One Nation Surges
The recent South Australian state election has sent a shiver down the spine of Liberal Party strategists, particularly those eyeing the upcoming Farrer by-election. The resounding success of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in SA, where it significantly fractured the conservative vote and even polled higher than the Liberals, has painted a stark warning for Angus Taylor and his party. Early indications suggest a similar scenario could unfold in the federal NSW regional seat of Farrer, leaving the Liberals in a precarious position.
In Farrer, the contest is shaping up to be a three-way race, with One Nation candidate David Farley, a seasoned agribusinessman and former National Party member, currently leading the pack. He is closely followed by independent Michelle Milthorpe, a teacher who impressively captured every polling booth in Albury during the 2025 state election. Trailing in third place, according to initial reports, is Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski, who was only selected a week ago. This is a significant development in a seat that has been a conservative stronghold for a quarter of a century, previously held by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley.
The critical question for the Liberals, as the Farrer by-election campaign intensifies, is who they would least want to see emerge victorious if they cannot secure the seat themselves. This decision hinges on how they will direct their preferences after allocating them to the Nationals. Will their second or third preferences go to Farley of One Nation, or to Milthorpe, the independent?
The Liberal campaign has attempted to brand Milthorpe as a “teal” candidate, drawing parallels to the independent movement funded by Climate 200. However, Milthorpe herself has rejected this label, asserting her identity as a country independent, more akin to Helen Haines, the Member for Indi, who represents a neighbouring Victorian electorate across the Murray River. From the Liberals’ perspective, a victory for Milthorpe, while not ideal, might be preferable to a One Nation win.
The One Nation Threat: More Than Just a Seat
A One Nation victory in Farrer would carry significant weight beyond simply increasing their representation in the House of Representatives from one member to two. Much like their performance in South Australia, it would inject a substantial dose of momentum into the party, especially with the Victorian state election looming in November, where Pauline Hanson has vowed a strong presence. This surge of energy and a platform for their message of grievance and disruption could prove highly damaging to the Liberal Party’s broader electoral prospects.
For Angus Taylor and the Liberal Party, regaining voters who have defected to One Nation is paramount. Simultaneously, to have any chance of winning a federal election, they must also win back voters who have drifted towards progressive options. The decision on Farrer preferences is therefore a delicate balancing act, influenced by which segment of disillusioned voters they are most concerned about alienating. The current focus appears to be on re-engaging their traditional “base” on the right flank, rather than centrist voters.
The Perils of Preferencing Against One Nation
Furthermore, the Liberals are acutely aware that any move to preference against One Nation would likely escalate the party’s attacks on them, potentially becoming even more ferocious. Adding another layer of complexity, many Liberal Party branch members in Farrer, those who have not already abandoned the party, are likely to expect their party to preference the Hansonite candidate.
Given these factors, the prevailing sentiment is that the Liberals will likely opt to preference One Nation in Farrer. This decision, while potentially securing the seat for the conservative side, carries the significant risk of empowering One Nation and potentially having long-term detrimental consequences for the Liberal Party’s electoral standing.
One Nation’s Disruptive Power
The South Australian election serves as a potent reminder that One Nation’s influence extends far beyond the number of seats they win. Even if they secure only a handful of lower house seats in SA, their power lies in their ability to act as a party of grievance and disruption. This strategy effectively undermines traditional conservative parties.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan has been directly confronting Pauline Hanson, but on a national level, Angus Taylor appears to be struggling to effectively counter her and her party’s appeal. One Nation’s adeptness at articulating grievances and their disruptive tactics seem to resonate more strongly with certain segments of the electorate than the Liberal Party’s current messaging.
Election analyst Antony Green has aptly described One Nation’s approach as a “search and destroy mission” targeting conservative parties. The outcome in South Australia starkly underscores the urgent need for Taylor and the Liberal Party to develop a coherent strategy to counter the growing influence of the Hansonites. The Farrer by-election is poised to be a critical test of their ability to do just that.
