Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Unconventional Move into the Prediction Market
Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo made a unique announcement last week that caught the attention of sports fans and industry observers alike. A day after the Bucks confirmed they would not trade the two-time NBA MVP before the trade deadline, the Greek star took to social media to share an unexpected update — he had become a shareholder in Kalshi, a prominent prediction market with a wide range of sports trading opportunities.
“The internet is full of opinions. I decided it was time to make some of my own,” Antetokounmpo posted on social media. “Today, I’m joining Kalshi as a shareholder.”
This move sparked considerable interest, especially given the timing. Antetokounmpo had been the subject of widespread rumors ahead of the NBA trade deadline. At the start of the season, it was expected that he would remain with the Bucks, but many within the league believed a trade was inevitable. The key question was when it would happen — before the deadline or during the off-season.
The Bucks ultimately decided to keep the two-time MVP for now, effectively ending any chance of him joining another team before the end of the season. In the days leading up to the deadline, Kalshi had several posts on X highlighting its event contracts related to Antetokounmpo’s trade market and the fluctuating odds connected to the teams believed to be in the mix for his services.
The market drew more than $US23.3 million ($32.8m). It only fell short of the NBA champion market by a few hundred thousand, with $23.6 million traded.
Some commentators raised concerns about the Greek star’s ownership of a stake in a sports prediction market company, while being an active player in the NBA. However, the current collective bargaining agreement allows it. The deal between owners and players, struck in 2023, states that players can hold minor stakes of less than one per cent in sports betting or fantasy companies, even if those organizations offer NBA wagering. It’s understood this rule likely includes prediction markets.
Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade — or wager — on the result of future events. They rose to prominence in politics, but the array of typically yes-or-no questions includes everything from the weather to the Oscar for best picture. The markets are comprised of event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.
The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a zero per cent to 100 per cent chance of what traders think could happen.
It’s not known when Giannis tipped his money into Kalshi, but the company raised capital several times in 2025. Reports in the US state it started with a $US185 million round in June, followed by $US300 million in October and $US1 billion in December.
Antetokounmpo isn’t the only player tied to Kalshi, with Kevin Durant reportedly participating in a funding round.
Reporters in the US speculated that Giannis may have fuelled trade rumors to draw attention to the announcement of his new partnership. Ahead of the deadline, he dominated the headlines, with ESPN’s Shams Charania reporting the two-time MVP was listening to offers and “ready for a new home.”
Kalshi explicitly bans users from betting with insider information, but it appears to be a challenge for the industry. When the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an anonymous trader on Polymarket — another prediction market — made more than $US400,000 after betting that Maduro would soon be out of office, raising suspicions of potential insider trading because of the timing of the wagers and the trader’s narrow activity.
More recently, a new account made $US169,993 on Super Bowl LX half time show bets, in what some deemed as suspicious activity.
The rapid growth of such companies has made them difficult to ignore in the commercial space. Kalshi’s valuation skyrocketed from $US2 billion in June to roughly $11 billion by December. The company took in more than $US900 million in trading volume on Super Bowl LX.
