A Punters’ Guide to the Day’s Racing: Expert Selections and Form Analysis
The track is rated heavy 8, with the rail sitting perfectly true, setting the stage for a day of competitive racing. Our seasoned form analysts have delved deep into the fields to bring you their top picks and value bets across the card.
Race 1: A Competitive Opener
The first race presents a progressive mare, 5. Bonnie Murringo, as a strong contender. Having her fourth run back from a spell, she’s well-placed. Her previous outing in a much tougher Country Championship qualifier saw her make significant ground from the back, a form line that reads exceptionally well for this contest. With a solid 33 per cent winning strike rate from nine starts, including a win on soft ground, she’s a mare on the rise.
Another to consider is 8. Warpainted, who also showed a late surge in that same qualifier, coming from near the tail of the field. 3. Samurai is coming off an impressive upset win at BM 75 level at Canberra second-up, suggesting he’s in good nick. 2. Ghost Walker could improve stepping up in distance for his third run back, while 6. Light Foot and 9. Sweet Treats, the latter dropping back from metropolitan company, round out the best of the rest.
Our play: A confident win bet on Bonnie Murringo.
Race 2: Consistency is Key
In the second, 7. Think I Do stands out as a tough and consistent mare from Canberra. She’s been in the placings in her last four starts, including a narrow defeat in a metropolitan BM 64 over 1900m and a solid placing over this longer journey in a provincial BM 68. She thrives in rain-affected conditions, and her jockey’s 1.5kg claim will help offset the weight impost.
6. Super Mirage has drawn well and is a genuine threat after placing in his last two starts. The switch from blinkers to winkers might also bring out the best in him. The gap to the rest is considerable, but 2. Palace Green is looking for this longer trip third-up, and 4. Untethered comes off a dominant win in a weaker grade.
Our play: Think I Do to lead the field home.
Race 3: On the Up
The third race features 2. Ride The River, an improving four-year-old provincial galloper who looks poised to go back-to-back. After a narrow defeat first-up, he led all the way to win convincingly as a short-priced favourite in heavy going last start. He’s a reliable weight carrier and his draw suggests he’ll be prominent again.
1. Hello Romeo is a big watch, dropping back in class for a leading Victorian stable. 3. Tallingas Immortal boasts smart tactical speed and is chasing a third consecutive win after a five-week freshen-up. 6. Sizzleist, trained on the course, is the best of the remaining chances.
Our play: Ride The River to maintain his winning form.
Race 4: Emerging Talent
A promising and talented metropolitan three-year-old, 2. Borjnord, makes his debut in race four. He missed by a whisker on his initial start at Newcastle and is drawn to stalk the speed again. The scratching of a key rival further enhances his prospects.
6. Tuscany is a significant contender, resuming for his first start since the spring after two solid trials. 10. Jasira also returns from a lengthy spell and has shown good form in two recent trials, with blinkers applied. 4. Sacred Inferno is another who typically improves sharply second-up.
Our play: Borjnord to break his maiden status.
Race 5: Filly with Potential
In the fifth, 10. Blue Monday is a lightly raced filly resuming for her third career start. She impressed with a strong finish on debut and then broke through at Moruya with a sweeping run from midfield on soft ground. Her breeding suggests she’ll handle the conditions, and she’s trialled well.
4. Sargeant Stan is a talented local who, despite a wide draw, has a good record at this track, with both his career wins coming here. 6. Fourthtimelucky, an honest Victorian, has trialled since a narrow defeat in stronger company. 3. Marty McFly comes off a third-up win in weaker grade, while 7. Guru Two is expected to benefit from the addition of blinkers.
Our play: Blue Monday to mark her return with a win.
Race 6: Local Guineas Hope
Race six sees 3. Autumn Break, a talented local, primed for the Guineas. She’s won both her starts here up to CL2 level and was unlucky when resuming in a CL2 Highway at Randwick. Last start, despite a tough run in a strong Country Championship qualifier, she still managed to place. With a better draw and proven ability on soft and heavy tracks, she’s a major player.
4. Jaegers is a progressive metropolitan filly dropping in class. 1. Beyond Question has had five weeks since tackling Group 3 company, finishing well behind the winner. 2. Ethereum Girl, another Victorian visitor, resumes after competing in the Group 1 Oaks last spring.
Our play: Autumn Break to claim the Guineas.
Race 7: Cup Contenders
The feature Cup race sees 2. Plymouth as a strong proposition. This progressive Victorian is well-placed third-up, rising in distance and coming back in class. His form includes winning the Benalla Cup and running close in Group 2 and Group 1 races last spring. Drawn to get cover, he’ll be looking for a clear run in the straight.
5. Bear On The Loose is expected to be the likely leader for the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable. He was tough resuming and was only collared late in metropolitan company last start. He relishes wet tracks and will give them all something to chase. 4. Touristic is in career-best form after a sweeping win in the Listed Canberra Cup. 1. Casino Seventeen drops back from tougher Group 2 races, while 8. Geemes produced a strong late run to finish second in the Canberra Cup.
Our play: Plymouth to take out the Cup.
Race 8: Sprinting Speed
The final race features 2. Ticklebelly, a smart and speedy mare resuming for her first run since the spring. She showed good form in country sprints and had a recent soft track trial win. She has a solid first-up record, winning two of her four starts when fresh.
8. One Hard Lady is a promising local mare resuming off a dominant trial win and is unbeaten fresh. 6. Rumours Abound is another local with talent, coming back from city races. 1. Sparring, a stablemate of Rumours Abound, could peak third-up. 5. Iron Will gets blinkers back on a quick seven-day turnaround, while 9. Brenlyn’s Legacy won four straight last year and is back after five weeks.
Our play: Ticklebelly to cap off the day with a win.
Our Best Bets:
* Race 2: 7. Think I Do
* Race 6: 3. Autumn Break
Our Best Value Bet:
* Race 7: 2. Plymouth
