Trump’s Economic Focus on Asia
U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is often seen as unpredictable, but his economic-first approach toward Asia, particularly with China and Japan, seems to be a consistent strategy that will likely continue through 2026. With midterm elections approaching and Americans increasingly frustrated by the rising cost of living, Trump has shifted his focus to domestic affordability concerns. This pivot has been accelerated since his final overseas trip of 2025, which took place in late October.
When discussing foreign affairs, Trump consistently emphasizes economic aspects. He frequently claims that his tariff threats have led to favorable deals for the United States and asserts that his policies will significantly benefit the U.S. economy. This tendency is especially evident in the U.S.-China relationship during his second term. Unlike previous administrations, Trump’s approach has primarily focused on economic competition and protecting U.S. interests.
Trump rarely criticizes China from an ideological standpoint and avoids sensitive topics such as Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory and does not rule out taking by force. Bonny Lin, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the high-level trajectory is focused more on economic issues, with both sides delivering on what they agreed at Busan, where Trump last met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Economic Goals Shape Foreign Policy
Pursuing economic objectives plays a significant role in Trump’s foreign policy across all U.S. relationships. Lin described such goals as something Trump personally values a lot, shaping his worldview. At the end of his Asia tour, Trump met with Xi for the first time since the U.S. leader began his current term in January. The two sides agreed to a one-year truce in their trade war and a return to the previous status quo.
Among the provisions of the agreement, China committed to suspending its expansion of export controls on rare earths and resuming its purchases of American soybeans, while the United States lowered its tariffs on Chinese goods. The Trump administration now appears content with the de-escalated state of U.S.-China relations, though it has yet to secure substantial concessions from the Asian rival.
Geopolitical Dynamics in Asia
Jeffrey Hornung, an expert on Japan and East Asian security issues at the Rand Corporation, said the geopolitical dynamic in Asia could change depending on how the United States defines China in the coming months. The question is whether China will be treated as “a security challenge or as an opportunity,” Hornung said, noting that the current U.S. administration has not yet fully articulated its strategy toward the country, including how it assesses China, North Korea, and Russia “in terms of potential adversarial roles in the Indo-Pacific.”
To gain a more thorough understanding of the administration’s perceptions of China and of relations between the United States and its allies, it is necessary to wait for additional documents beyond the security strategy, such as a review of the U.S. military’s global posture.
Upcoming Diplomatic Events
Trump is planning to visit China, possibly as a state guest, in April, which is anticipated to be a major diplomatic event on his 2026 calendar. Given that China, using its leverage over critical minerals, is seen as having the upper hand in its negotiations with the United States, it is too early to predict whether another Trump-Xi meeting will take place smoothly in the spring.
Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Washington-based think tank, said that even knowing the chances of an eye-catching agreement are slim, Trump could go ahead with the trip if he wanted to present himself as taking the initiative to drive the U.S.-China relationship. She noted that Trump “does not have the same playbook as past presidents.”
However, Lin also thinks there is a great deal of uncertainty between now and April, as China has not changed its aggressive behavior toward Japan and other U.S. partners. For example, China is not going to be less coercive against Japan because of the potential that President Trump might visit China. There’s a risk of those factors coming in and then impacting whatever direction President Trump has already set the United States on.
Balancing Relationships
Hornung, the Japan lead in the U.S. research institute’s National Security Research Division, shares a similar view. While he believes that issues concerning China will not have a big impact on the 2026 midterms, as most Americans do not vote on foreign policy, Hornung said it is in the U.S. interest that the growing diplomatic rift between Tokyo and Beijing, which began in November, does not get out of control.
He said the row, triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency, could complicate Trump’s strategy of engagement with China. Trump and his senior administration officials are aware that “this is a delicate situation” and “they’re balancing two very important relationships,” Hornung said.
He added there is a possibility that China “digs a hole for itself” by overplaying its hand against Japan, a key U.S. ally. As another possible outcome, he noted that if the United States “said ‘OK, let’s have an engagement,’ and then China takes advantage of the U.S., that’s going to make it very difficult for the U.S. to move forward on that.”
