After a brief moment of global relief over the Strait of Hormuz reopening in a path towards peace, Iran reignited the standoff by firing at ships attempting to cross the waterway on Saturday. This action triggered a new escalation, raising questions about who holds decision-making power in Tehran. With only three days before the ceasefire expires and no new peace talks scheduled yet, tensions continue to rise.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), which reports directly to Iran’s supreme leader, has signaled that it determines the conditions for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. This contradicts statements made by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday, who claimed the strait is open in a corridor “coordinated by Iran.” It also conflicts with US President Donald Trump’s announcements regarding a broader agreement with Iran.
On Saturday morning, the IRGC warned that the strait “reverted to its previous state of strict military control” as the US blockade continues. Following this, the IRGC proceeded to fire on and harass ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz after Friday’s announcements. As a result, many tankers decided to turn around abruptly.
Later that evening, the IRGC declared the strait closed until the US blockade is lifted. They issued a warning that “no vessel should make any movement from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as cooperation with the enemy” and be targeted.
Iran’s chief negotiator, parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, appeared to align with the IRGC’s position on Sunday. This came 24 hours after the IRGC’s announcements and mirrored their stance. Qalibaf stated that the strait is now under Iran’s control and linked the choke point’s reopening to Washington lifting its naval blockade.
“It is impossible for others to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while we cannot,” Qalibaf said on Iranian semi-official media. He added that if the U.S. does not lift the blockade, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be restricted.
Trump dismissed the latest Iranian moves on Saturday, stating that Iran “got a little cute” but that “very good” conversations were happening. He added that more information would come by the end of Saturday, saying, “They can’t blackmail us.”
To highlight the volatile developments in the strait, an audio recording on maritime frequencies on Saturday morning appears to show Iranian forces firing on the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald. This marks a first, as India is a top importer of Iranian oil. The captain of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald is heard pleading desperately with the Iranian forces to stop firing at it, claiming he had permission to cross.
In response to the attack, India summoned Iran’s ambassador in New Delhi on Saturday evening, urging Tehran to restore safe passage in the strait.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think-tank states that “the IRGC appears to be controlling Iranian decision-making instead of Iranian political officials who are engaging with the United States in negotiations, particularly Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi.”
“The IRGC’s decision to interfere with international shipping and act in contradiction to Araghchi’s statement reflects broader divisions within the Iranian regime, which ISW-CTP has consistently reported on in recent weeks,” the ISW statement says.
In a further warning, an Iranian commander told the Iranian state television on Saturday that “If the war resumes, Iran will use missiles that were built just this month” and that war “will become global this time.”
The Iranian statement appears to coincide with US intelligence and military officials quoted by The New York Times on Saturday. These officials estimate that Iran still maintains about 40% of its pre-war arsenal and long-range attack drones, as well as 60% of its ballistic and cruise missile launchers. The NY Times report adds that Iran recovered firing systems buried inside caves and bunkers and reclaimed as much as 70% of its pre-war stockpile of missiles, similarly buried in rubble from attacks on its bunkers and depots.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal quoted US officials on Saturday reporting that the US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters in the coming days. Aviation monitoring portal Flightradar24 shows that US military equipment continues to be transported to the Middle East at the same sustained buildup levels as during the war.
Therefore, the last 72 hours before the ceasefire expires will be shaped by decision-making in Tehran caught in a house of mirrors. The hardline, autonomous IRGC telegraphs that it has the upper hand, while military buildup on both sides shows no signs of letting up on Sunday.
