The 98th Academy Awards are set to captivate audiences this Sunday, March 15, live from the iconic Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. This year’s ceremony promises a particularly thrilling Best Picture competition, shaping up to be one of the most closely contested races in recent memory. While a total of 10 films released in 2025 are vying for the night’s most prestigious award, the preceding award season has strongly indicated that the ultimate showdown will likely be between two cinematic powerhouses: Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping epic, “One Battle After Another,” and Ryan Coogler’s critically acclaimed historical horror drama, “Sinners.”
A New Category and a Tight Race
This year’s Oscars will feature a new category, adding another layer of excitement to the proceedings. However, the real buzz is centered on the Best Picture race. Paul Thomas Anderson’s political comedy-thriller, “One Battle After Another,” made an immediate splash upon its release, establishing itself as an early frontrunner. Yet, “Sinners” has mounted a formidable challenge, earning a history-making 16 Academy Award nominations. Furthermore, its significant win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) has underscored its widespread critical acclaim and the deep affection it has garnered from awards voters.
The Actor Awards’ top prize, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, is often viewed as a strong predictor for the Best Picture Oscar. Historically, 15 out of the last 30 recipients of this award have gone on to claim the coveted Best Picture Oscar, a testament to the overlap in voting bodies and shared sensibilities.
Expert Predictions vs. Public Sentiment
Despite the strong performance of “Sinners” in the lead-up to the Oscars, many major critical predictions, as published prior to the ceremony, have expressed skepticism regarding its chances for Best Picture. These expert opinions, while influential, do not always align with the broader sentiment of the public or the inclinations of all awards voters. The Academy Awards have a history of surprising outcomes, with less favored films occasionally triumphing. This dynamic raises the question: where is the public’s money, and what does it suggest about the likely winner?
Betting Markets Lean Towards “One Battle After Another”
As of Saturday, betting platforms such as Kalshi reveal a clear preference among those wagering on the outcome. The majority of faith is placed in Paul Thomas Anderson’s rollicking political thriller/comedy, “One Battle After Another.” Currently, the film boasts a commanding 77% probability of securing the Best Picture award. “Sinners” trails significantly behind, with a 22% chance. Chloe Zhao’s historical drama, “Hamnet,” is a distant third contender, holding a mere 3% probability.
Betting Trends and Shifts
“One Battle After Another” has consistently dominated the betting landscape on Kalshi for this particular race since as early as September. Its betting odds experienced a slight dip in mid-November, reaching its lowest point at 51.5%. This period coincided with a notable surge in bets placed on “Hamnet,” which then reached its highest point of favorability for the entire race at 29.7%. Conversely, “Sinners” has generally seen less enthusiastic betting. Its odds remained in the single digits for much of the pre-Oscar season, only experiencing an early January boost to a 24.9% favorability rating.
The Kalshi Oscar for Best Picture bets page indicates a substantial volume of wagers, exceeding $15 million, with just one day remaining before Hollywood’s most anticipated night. This financial barometer offers a fascinating glimpse into public perception and the perceived trajectory of the Best Picture race.
The outcome of the 98th Academy Awards remains uncertain, but the intense competition between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” coupled with the insights from betting markets, promises a compelling and unforgettable evening.
