Once Nigeria’s preeminent political force, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has experienced a significant decline in its power, a trajectory marked by internal strife, leadership disputes, and widespread defections that have fundamentally altered the nation’s political landscape.
The Ambitious 60-Year Reign Prophecy
In December 2008, the then National Chairman of the PDP, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, confidently declared that his party was poised to govern Nigeria for six decades. “The PDP is a party for all and it is set to rule Nigeria for the next 60 years. I don’t care if Nigeria becomes a one-party state. We can do it and the PDP can contain all,” he asserted. This proclamation came at a time when the PDP commanded substantial influence, boasting approximately 28 governors and a comfortable majority in both the National Assembly and state legislative houses, following the contentious 2007 general elections. The party had initially seized power in 1999 with the election of President Olusegun Obasanjo and the control of 21 governorship seats, marking the inception of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.
Internal Rebellions and the NGF Crisis
However, Ogbulafor’s ambitious prediction soon began to unravel. The party’s fortunes started to wane approximately five years later, exacerbated by a crisis within the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF). In May 2013, an NGF election saw Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State re-elected as chairman, narrowly defeating Governor Jonah Jang of Plateau State. This election occurred amidst a backdrop of strained relations between Amaechi and his allies, and then-President Goodluck Jonathan, who reportedly backed Jang’s faction. The infamous slogan “16 is greater than 19” emerged from this period, reflecting the deep divisions.
The Jang bloc, with presidential backing, formed a splinter group, establishing a separate secretariat and holding parallel meetings, which were recognized by the presidency. Amaechi’s group, in contrast, was perceived as defiant. This internal schism culminated on December 9, 2013, when five PDP governors—Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), and Amaechi himself—departed the PDP to join the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC). This event is widely regarded as the beginning of the end for what was once celebrated as Africa’s largest political party.
Another significant blow came when former President Olusegun Obasanjo publicly renounced his PDP membership, tearing his party card before the media. Despite these setbacks, former military Head of State, General Ibrahim Babangida, who revealed the PDP’s origins were rooted in the vision of ex-military leaders, suggested in March 2017 that the party could still reclaim its dominance if it addressed its internal issues. Nevertheless, instead of recovery, the PDP descended further into a series of crises, each inflicting further damage on its political standing.
The 2023 Primaries and the G-5 Revolt
The lead-up to the 2023 presidential primaries starkly exposed the PDP’s deep-seated internal divisions. While former Vice President Atiku Abubakar pursued the presidential ticket, a powerful bloc of PDP leaders and governors, known as the G-5, advocated for a presidential candidate from the South, arguing it was the South’s turn after eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure. The G-5, spearheaded by Nyesom Wike (Rivers) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo), actively opposed Atiku’s nomination.
The tension escalated when Wike, who had aspired to be Atiku’s running mate, was overlooked in favour of Ifeanyi Okowa, then governor of Delta State. This decision further inflamed the G-5’s grievances. The internal discord fractured the party, transforming it from a cohesive unit into warring factions, severely hampering its ability to mount a unified campaign for the 2023 elections. Notably, Wike and other G-5 members were alleged to have supported President Bola Tinubu’s victory over Atiku.
In a bid to appease the aggrieved factions, the PDP removed its National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, and appointed Umar Damagum as acting National Chairman. Damagum was perceived as a close ally of Wike. However, Damagum’s loyalty was subsequently tested in the struggle to oust the party’s National Secretary, Sam Anyanwu, a staunch supporter of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. The conflict ignited when the party’s South-East zone nominated Sunday Ude-Okoye to replace Anyanwu after he ran for the 2023 Imo State governorship election. The PDP Governors’ Forum pushed for Anyanwu’s removal, while Wike and his supporters backed him. The ensuing legal battles and internal skirmishes further fragmented the PDP’s National Working Committee (NWC) and Board of Trustees (BoT).
Controversial Convention and Expulsion Wars
The crisis reached a fever pitch on November 25, 2025, when the Damagum-led faction, with the backing of four PDP governors, proceeded with a national convention despite two separate Federal High Court injunctions. This convention elected a new NWC, headed by Tanimu Turaki as the new National Chairman. The outcome of the convention led to the expulsion of prominent figures, including Wike, Anyanwu, Kamaldeen Ajibade (SAN), former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose, and Austin Nwachukwu, among others, for alleged anti-party activities.
In response, the Wike bloc initiated a counter-expulsion, announcing the removal of Governors Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Bala Muhammed (Bauchi), and Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), along with PDP Board of Trustees Chairman Adolphus Wabara, former National Vice Chairman Bode George, and Tanimu Turaki.
INEC’s Rejection and the Legitimacy Crisis
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) refused to recognize the Ibadan convention and the Turaki-led NWC, citing ongoing legal processes. In a letter dated December 22, 2025, and signed by its Secretary, Dr. Rose Oriaran-Anthony, INEC cited two Federal High Court judgments in Abuja—Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/2120/2025 (October 31, 2025) and Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/2299/2025 (November 14, 2025)—which restrained the commission from supervising, monitoring, or giving effect to the convention’s outcomes pending full compliance with court orders.
While the Turaki-led NWC contested INEC’s stance, the implication is that the new leadership lacks legal standing, and its actions may be deemed invalid. The non-recognition of the purported new leadership has caused significant concern among PDP stakeholders, who fear that any decisions made by this NWC could be overturned once the court nullifies the convention, as sought by the Wike bloc. As of Saturday, Damagum and Anyanwu remained listed as the National Chairman and National Secretary of the PDP, respectively.
Governors’ Defections and a Shrinking PDP Map
Beyond the 2013 defections, a series of protracted crises have led to the departure of no fewer than 11 PDP governors and numerous national and state lawmakers since 2020. Notable defections include:
- November 17, 2020: David Umahi, then second-term governor of Ebonyi State, joined the APC.
- May 20, 2021: Ben Ayade, governor of Cross River State, defected to the APC.
- June 29, 2021: Bello Matawalle, governor of Zamfara State, also moved to the APC.
- April 23, 2025: Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State defected to the APC.
- June 6, 2025: Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State joined the APC.
- October 14, 2025: Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah switched to the APC.
- November 3, 2025: Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri left the PDP.
- November 4, 2025: Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas also defected.
- December 2025: Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State announced his resignation from the PDP, joining the Accord Party on December 9 and becoming its flagbearer for the 2026 governorship election.
- December 9, 2025: Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State joined the APC.
- The Governor of Plateau State was the most recent PDP figure to defect to the APC, a move announced during the party’s 14th National Caucus meeting in Abuja.
Of the PDP governors elected in the 2023 general elections, only Makinde (Oyo), Muhammed (Bauchi), Lawal (Zamfara), and Fintiri (Adamawa) reportedly remain with the party. The PDP has also seen scores of lawmakers switch allegiance to the APC.
Political analysts attribute the PDP’s “misfortune” to factors such as impunity, the excessive influence of political officeholders, and the abandonment of the party by its former leaders. Despite maintaining structures from the unit to the national level, the persistent leadership crisis has left thousands of members feeling adrift.
Rebuilding Efforts and the Path Forward
Ini Ememobong, a spokesperson for the PDP, attributed the party’s declining fortunes to the inherent dynamics of politics, asserting that such shifts are not unique to the PDP or Nigeria’s political system. Ememobong expressed confidence in the PDP’s ability to rebound, stating that the party is being “returned to the people.” He drew parallels with the Democratic Party in the United States and the Labour Party in the UK, both of which have experienced periods out of power.
“What we are facing in the PDP is simply the dynamics of politics,” Ememobong stated. “The really important thing is how we are building back. We are building back with our name and returning power to the people. When we started, we had no governors, no senators, only the people who voted for us and made those decisions. Unfortunately, some people who emerged through the party process have decided to elope with the votes. Do we chase them, or go back to the people who made us? We are going back to the makers of the party—the people.” He emphasized a commitment to ensuring that elected officials’ voices do not overshadow those of ordinary citizens, fostering a balance where governors and senators are respected but not at the expense of the collective will of the people. This, he explained, is the foundation of the “new PDP” being rebuilt on principles of justice, equity, fairness, and transparency, with a participatory approach to candidate selection.
Timothy Osadolor, a member of the NWC aligned with the Wike bloc, argued that the inability of governors to defer to party structures and the arrogance of some leaders had crippled the PDP. He advocated for genuine reconciliation through dialogue to restore the party’s standing. “The truth is that a system that drives away people like Adolphus Wabara and some of these governors would never amount to anything significant,” Osadolor remarked. “These are men given to doublespeak and quick fixes, unwilling to take hard decisions. It also borders on arrogance, because ultimately the mandate to remain in power belongs to the Nigerian people, and it is quality service that earns another term in office.”
Osadolor lamented the missed opportunity to build a lasting legacy of governance, suggesting that an inclusive approach with people-oriented leaders could have achieved this. “It is unfortunate that the PDP, once the pride of Nigerians, has been reduced to this state. But democracy will not die, and the PDP will not die. Nigerians should keep hope alive. There will be gradual shifts in the administration of the PDP. What the party must do is to go back home and ask: where did we get it wrong?”
Addressing the way forward, Osadolor proposed a critical change in leadership, emphasizing that governors should function as party members, not leaders. He called for the election of party administrators by the party’s true owners—the people. Furthermore, he urged leaders with deep ideological divisions to engage in genuine reconciliation, truth-telling, and apologies to mend fences. “More importantly, we must tell Nigerians what we will do differently if given another opportunity to administer Nigeria,” he concluded.
