Dubai, once synonymous with opulent resorts, gleaming shopping centres, and sun-drenched beaches, has long cultivated an image as a fantastical gateway between East and West. For many travellers, the experience is largely confined to air-conditioned comfort, with a vague awareness of a sandy, hot landscape somewhere in the Middle East. This carefully curated facade, however, has been dramatically challenged by escalating regional tensions.
Professor Shahram Akbarzadeh of Deakin University observes, “Every time I travel to the region, I’m amazed how artificial everything looks. It’s like a spaceship has landed in the middle of a desert.” This sentiment highlights the stark contrast between the modern, constructed environment of the UAE and its natural surroundings.
Crucially, the UAE, and particularly Dubai, is geographically much closer to Iran than many visitors might realise – a mere 200 kilometres across the water. Since late February, this proximity has become a source of significant concern. The United Arab Emirates, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi, has been subjected to repeated missile and drone attacks originating from Iran.
The Shifting Sands of Tourism and Daily Life
The impact of these attacks has been profound, disrupting the very fabric of daily life. Tourism has ground to a halt, children are being educated at home, and office workers have transitioned to remote work. On a somewhat ironic note, one of the few perceived “benefits” for locals has been the significantly reduced traffic on Dubai’s notoriously congested Sheikh Zayed Road – though undertaking the journey itself now carries a new kind of risk.
While most incoming projectiles have been intercepted by advanced anti-missile systems, the attacks have still resulted in fatalities, damaged infrastructure, and caused significant disruption to business and travel. Eight people have been killed in the UAE, hotels have been set ablaze, and debris has rained down on civilian areas. The port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman has experienced operational slowdowns, air travel has been temporarily suspended, and maritime traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz has been impacted. Tens of thousands of tourists, caught in transit, have found themselves stranded, albeit often accommodated in luxury hotels at the UAE government’s expense.
The Iranian offensive has not been limited to the UAE. Other Gulf states, including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, have also found themselves in Iran’s crosshairs. Professor Akbarzadeh notes this as a significant strategic misstep: “This is one of the major strategic errors that Iran has made. It has united all the Gulf states against itself.” This unified front raises critical questions about the long-term implications of a prolonged conflict and the UAE’s evolving position within the region.
Understanding the UAE: More Than Just Dubai
Many Australians are familiar with Dubai, whether through personal holidays or the extensive marketing efforts of its national airline, Emirates. Dubai International Airport is a global logistics hub, while neighbouring Abu Dhabi, though perhaps less overtly glitzy, has established itself as a cultural powerhouse, attracting branches of the Louvre and Guggenheim museums, and hosting Formula 1 races and a Ferrari-themed park.
However, the UAE is a federation of seven emirates, each with its unique character:
- Sharjah: A short drive from Dubai, Sharjah offers a glimpse into a more traditional past, with vibrant souks, dhows, and numerous carpet shops. Alcohol is prohibited here, which has presented a challenge for tourism.
- Ajman: The smallest of the emirates, Ajman maintains a slower, more relaxed pace of life.
- Umm Al Quwain: Another sleepy emirate, offering a tranquil escape.
- Fujairah: This easternmost emirate is home to a significant tanker-refuelling hub and the end of an oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, making it a point of strategic interest.
- Ras Al Khaimah: A mountainous emirate with a growing tourism sector, including luxury hotels and the development of a casino, signalling ambitions to emulate Dubai’s success.
A History Forged in Truce and Union
The seven emirates were once tribal territories with ill-defined borders. In the early 19th century, agreements with Britain to combat piracy led to the region becoming known as the Trucial States. These sheikdoms operated under loose British protection. When Britain withdrew its forces from the Gulf in the late 1960s, the need for collective security became paramount.
Dr. James Onley, an expert in Gulf Studies, explains: “When, in 1968, Britain announced that it would be withdrawing its military forces east of Suez by 1971, the Trucial States realised they needed a collective security arrangement because their small size meant they would be vulnerable to annexation by their more powerful neighbours, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran.”
The formation of the UAE was a strategic move to ensure stability and international recognition. In 1971, six emirates formed the federation, with Ras Al Khaimah joining in 1972. Bahrain and Qatar, also former British protectorates, opted to go their own way. The union, with Abu Dhabi’s ruler as president and Dubai’s ruler as deputy, provided a framework for collective defence, economic cooperation, and allowed individual ruling families to maintain sovereignty.
The intricate territorial arrangements within the UAE are a legacy of British cartographic exercises. Sharjah, for instance, comprises several non-contiguous territories, including the village of Nahwa, which is an exclave within an Omani exclave, earning it the nickname “the Donut Ring.”
Economic Powerhouse: Oil and Strategic Bailouts
Abu Dhabi’s discovery of oil in 1958 transformed the nation into one of the world’s wealthiest per capita. The emirate’s sovereign wealth funds have significant global investments. Notably, Abu Dhabi played a crucial role in supporting Dubai during the 2008 global financial crisis, leading to the renaming of the world’s tallest building from “Burj Dubai” to the Burj Khalifa, in honour of the then-Abu Dhabi ruler. This event also curtailed Dubai’s previously significant autonomy.
The Nexus of Conflict: Why the UAE is a Target
The current wave of attacks appears to be a response to actions by the United States and Israel. Iran has claimed that the UAE served as a base for US strikes. Despite the effectiveness of UAE’s air defence systems, the proximity to Iran and the UAE’s global prominence make it a symbolic target.
Furthermore, the UAE’s strong relationship with the United States, including hosting several US military bases with approximately 3,500 personnel, has placed it squarely in the crosshairs. These bases have been used for operations against Iran.
Professor Akbarzadeh suggests that Iran’s actions may stem from a perception of existential threat, stating that Tehran, “felt that this was it, that this is the final battle, and if they lose this one, the whole regime could collapse.”
A Complex Relationship with Iran
The UAE’s relationship with Iran is historically nuanced. Territorial disputes, such as Iran’s seizure of islands claimed by Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah in 1971, remain a significant point of contention. Cultural and religious differences also exist, with Iran being Persian and predominantly Shiite, while the UAE is Arab and largely Sunni.
Despite these tensions, economic ties have been substantial, with billions of dollars in annual trade between Iran and Dubai. A significant Iranian diaspora resides in the UAE, particularly in Dubai, which has historically adopted a more tolerant approach towards Iran due to the economic benefits derived from this relationship. Centuries of cross-Gulf interaction have fostered deep commercial and cultural connections.
The Wider Regional Impact
The attacks have extended beyond the UAE, impacting Qatar’s vital LNG production facility, Bahrain’s naval base, Kuwaiti refineries, and Saudi Arabian sites. Even Oman has not been spared, with fatalities reported following a drone incident. The region’s reliance on desalination plants means that water infrastructure is also a potential target, exacerbating humanitarian concerns.
Navigating Uncertainty and Reassurance
The UAE is striving to project an image of stability and resilience, reassuring its large expatriate population, transient workers, tourists, and the influential “content creator” community that life can continue amidst the escalating conflict. While celebrations for the end of Ramadan proceeded, reports of explosions from air defence interceptions underscored the ongoing threat.
The nation’s leadership has publicly emphasised security and preparedness, aiming to bolster public confidence. However, the longer the conflict persists, the greater the potential damage to the UAE’s carefully crafted international image as a safe and aspirational destination, distinct from the perceived instability of the wider Middle East.
The Path Forward: Defence and Diplomacy
The attacks have prompted a re-evaluation of regional defence strategies. While the UAE and its neighbours are unlikely to sever ties with the US, there is a growing impetus to bolster national defence capabilities and institutions.
Australia has already increased its support, contributing a surveillance plane, personnel, and missiles to bolster UAE defences. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese highlighted the importance of assisting Gulf nations in defending themselves.
The current situation underscores the precarious balance the UAE has sought to maintain between its security concerns, its economic interests, and its desire to avoid direct confrontation. The long-term ramifications of these attacks remain uncertain, but they have undeniably cast a shadow over the region’s carefully constructed image and its future trajectory.
