The 2026 FIFA World Cup: A Mixed Outlook for Tourism
With less than 40 days to go until the kick-off of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, the event is generating as much interest in its potential tourism impact as in the teams and players set to compete. This will be the largest men’s World Cup in history, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches. It was initially expected to bring a significant economic boost to the host nations.
However, new data from the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) indicates that the situation in the United States may not be as straightforward as anticipated. In its latest report, FIFA World Cup 2026 Hotel Outlook, AHLA warns that expected demand has not translated into strong hotel bookings. Domestic travelers are outpacing international visitors, with factors such as FIFA room block cancellations, international travel barriers, and rising costs cited as key reasons for the softened demand.
The report highlights that 80% of surveyed hoteliers across 11 host cities say bookings are below initial projections. While domestic travelers are still filling rooms at typical summer levels, the anticipated surge of international visitors has yet to materialize on a large scale. This trend aligns with broader travel data showing increased global interest in the tournament but uneven conversion into confirmed trips. Analysts have noted a growing gap between search demand and actual arrivals, with structural barriers limiting conversions.
At the heart of the issue are visa constraints and geopolitical concerns. Between 65% and 70% of hoteliers surveyed by AHLA identified these factors as the main challenges affecting international demand. For an event that relies heavily on cross-border travel, particularly from Europe and Latin America, this poses a significant hurdle.
Rosanna Maietta, President and CEO of AHLA, said: “Hotels across host markets have spent years preparing for the World Cup, and while there is real excitement, the data points to a more nuanced outlook.”
Another factor contributing to the softer outlook is what the report calls an “artificial early demand signal” created by FIFA room block allocations. Hotels initially reserved large volumes of inventory for official tournament use, inflating early expectations. However, roughly half of respondents now report significant room releases back into the market, forcing a recalibration of demand forecasts.
The impact is being felt unevenly across host cities. In Kansas City, 85% to 90% of surveyed hotels report booking levels below expectations, with demand trailing even a standard summer without major events. Similar weak signals are emerging in Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle, where many operators describe the World Cup as effectively a “non-event” so far.
In contrast, a smaller group of destinations are seeing tangible gains. Miami and Atlanta are outperforming expectations, driven by strong leisure appeal, better air connectivity, and confirmed team base camps. These markets represent just 25% to 30% of respondents overall.
Major gateway cities such as New York City and Los Angeles fall somewhere in the middle. While bookings are softer than expected, they remain broadly in line with typical summer demand, suggesting the tournament is not yet delivering significant incremental uplift. Dallas and Houston also report a similar pattern, with around 70% of hotels tracking below World Cup projections despite maintaining steady baseline occupancy.
Maietta believes there is still “meaningful opportunity ahead,” but to fully realize that potential, the US and FIFA must ensure a “welcoming and seamless experience for international travellers.” She added: “That means avoiding unnecessary cost increases on visas and transportation to and from the games, and discouraging local jurisdictions from adding last-minute tax hikes that hurt the games and consumers.”
While the tourism picture is improving, benefits look uneven across North America. Analysis from Data Appeal and Mabrian, with PredictHQ, shows demand rising at different speeds, clustering in cities like Mexico City, Vancouver, and Boston, with air connectivity key to conversions.
Spending may reach $4.3 billion, largely in hospitality, but Oxford Economics says wider gains will be “marginal and short-lived.” Economist Barbara Denham notes that much demand will displace existing travel, with smaller cities gaining more than established hubs.
